North Korea's Unusual Provocation During 'Janchi'... "Building Domestic and International Justification"

Shelling again after four days, military agreement violations increase to 9
"Intended to blame South by masking external threats..."
US says "Permanent deployment of strategic assets unnecessary, USFK presence is sufficient"

Artillery firing competition scenes of North Korean artillery units released by the Korean Central News Agency in November 2021. [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jang Hee-jun] Experts analyzed North Korea's provocations, which violated the September 19 inter-Korean military agreement again during the Chinese Party Congress period?contrary to expectations of a lull?as an attempt to "build domestic and international justification." Since North Korea labeled South Korea's normal military exercises as "preemptive provocations," it appears to be internally packaging itself as effectively responding to external threats, while externally trying to shift responsibility onto South Korea.

According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff on the 19th, North Korea conducted artillery fire of about 100 rounds into the West Sea from the Jangsan Cape area in Hwanghae Province starting at 10 p.m. on the 18th, and about 150 rounds into the East Sea from the Jangjeon area in Gangwon Province starting at 11 p.m. The impact points were in the northern buffer zone of the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the sea, violating the September 19 military agreement again just four days after the previous violation on the 14th. This brings the total number of North Korea's violations of the military agreement to nine.

There is an analysis that North Korea's unusual provocations during the Chinese Party Congress are attempts to build justification both domestically and internationally. Furthermore, as the UN Security Council's condemnation of North Korea was previously blocked due to non-cooperation from China and Russia, it is expected that North Korea will continue small-scale provocations under tacit understanding with China, avoiding placing a burden on China.

Moon Sung-mook, head of the Unification Strategy Center at the Korea Institute for National Strategy, said, "North Korea defines us as 'enemies' and regards normal exercises as 'provocations.' This is intended to internally portray Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party, as effectively responding to external provocations, while externally shifting responsibility onto us. In particular, it aims to sow division in public opinion by instilling the perception that joint South Korea-U.S. exercises are 'unnecessary acts that provoke North Korea,'" he explained.

The General Staff of the North Korean People's Army stated through a spokesperson on the same day, "Following the 13th and 14th, on the 18th as well, the enemy again carried out military provocations that stimulate us near the Military Demarcation Line," adding, "To send a serious warning, our units conducted warning shots as a strong military countermeasure."

Photos released by the Korean Central News Agency showing Kim Jong Un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea, directing training from the 25th of last month to the 9th of this month.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

With North Korea's successive provocations heightening the sense of crisis over security on the Korean Peninsula, the authorities' concerns are expected to deepen further. Although various North Korean nuclear deterrence measures have been discussed recently, the United States has expressed a negative stance on redeploying tactical nuclear weapons and has also shown skepticism about the permanent deployment of U.S. strategic assets.

Patrick Ryder, spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Defense, said during a briefing on the 18th (local time), when asked whether U.S. strategic assets should be permanently deployed to defend South Korea, "There are already more than 28,000 U.S. troops stationed on the Korean Peninsula," adding, "That is a signal of the commitment to defense relations and security cooperation with the South Korean people."

Although he did not directly mention the permanent deployment of strategic assets, his remarks imply a negative stance on such deployment, emphasizing that the presence of U.S. forces in South Korea itself sufficiently demonstrates the U.S.'s defense commitment to South Korea.

However, it is understood that two U.S. Air Force strategic bombers, B-1Bs, were deployed to Andersen Air Force Base in Guam on the 18th (UTC), which is expected to send a strong warning signal to North Korea. Guam is about two hours away from the Korean Peninsula, and the U.S. previously deployed B-1Bs to Guam in June when signs of North Korea preparing for a nuclear test were detected.

Meanwhile, South Korea and the U.S. will begin a comprehensive combat readiness posture exercise in South Korean airspace from the 31st of this month to the 4th of next month. About 140 aircraft including F-35A, F-15K, and KF-16 from South Korea and about 100 aircraft including F-35B and F-16 from the U.S. will participate.

During the joint air exercise in July, the U.S. deployed six F-35As from Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska to the Korean Peninsula. At that time, about 30 South Korean and U.S. military aircraft participated, but this time the scale has significantly increased. The F-35B participating in this exercise is stationed at the U.S. Marine Corps base in Iwakuni, Japan, and unlike the F-35A, it can take off and land vertically, allowing it to operate from aircraft carriers.

Following the deployment of F-35As in July and the U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan (CVN-76, 103,000 tons) from September 23 to October 8, U.S. strategic assets are entering the Korean Peninsula one after another. This is seen as the realization of the "timely and coordinated deployment of strategic assets" agreed upon at the South Korea-U.S. summit in May.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.