Government Evaluates "Minimizing Severe Cases and Deaths Despite First Large-Scale Outbreak Without Social Distancing" (Update)

During the BA.5 Wave, Fatality Rate and Peak Confirmed Cases Lower Than Previous Wave

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Young-won] As the sixth wave of COVID-19 led by BA.5 has fully entered a decline phase, the fatality rate has been found to be about half that of the previous wave. The peak weekly number of confirmed cases was about one-third of the previous wave.

On the 22nd, the Central Disease Control Headquarters evaluated this summer's resurgence as the first wave responded to without uniform social distancing measures, focusing instead on quarantine and medical capacity, minimizing severe cases and deaths despite the large-scale outbreak.

Baek Kyung-ran, Commissioner of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA), stated, "Assuming the maximum number of cases, the response to the resurgence resulted in a daily maximum of 180,000 confirmed cases on August 17 and a daily maximum of 112 deaths, which are being managed within predicted ranges." Earlier in July, mathematical modeling predictions by KDCA and private researchers forecasted a peak of up to 280,000 cases in mid to late August.

The number of confirmed cases during the peak period was about one-third compared to the previous wave. During the peak week of the Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 wave in the third week of March, the daily average was 404,577 cases, whereas during the peak week of the current wave in the third week of last month, it was 127,577 cases.

The number of deaths was one-fifth of that in the previous wave. The highest daily death toll during the BA.5 dominant period was 112 on the 1st, which is more than one-quarter less than the previous wave's maximum of 469 deaths on March 24. The daily average number of deaths was also one-fifth lower.

The fatality rate decreased to about half. The fatality rate was 0.10% from January to July during the BA.1 and BA.2 dominance, but dropped to 0.05% from July to September when BA.5 was dominant.

The health authorities interpreted the recent decline in deaths and fatality rates as influenced by increased fourth-dose vaccinations and the rise in prescriptions of oral antiviral treatments. Commissioner Baek said, "The fourth-dose vaccination rate, which had been somewhat sluggish, increased sharply in July," adding, "The fourth-dose vaccination rate among those aged 60 and over rose significantly by 8.8 percentage points between July and August."

The administration rate of oral antiviral treatments among patients aged 60 and over increased from 6.4% in February to 21.7% last month. The severe case rate in this age group decreased from 1.28% to 0.42% during the same period. Monthly oral antiviral treatment administration rates were 6.4% in February, 7.5% in March, 8.9% in April, 12.3% in May, 18.0% in June, 14.6% in July, and 21.7% in August.

The authorities also explained that the number of cluster outbreaks decreased compared to the previous wave. During the BA.5 dominant period, there were 1,359 cluster outbreaks, a 58% reduction from 3,223 in the previous wave. The average number of confirmed cases per cluster also decreased from 57 to 25.

Commissioner Baek evaluated, "Although there were significant concerns about this quarantine response approach at the beginning of the wave, this resurgence has shown that COVID-19 can be managed without uniform social distancing measures." He added, "There is a possibility that respiratory infectious diseases such as influenza will co-circulate with COVID-19 this winter," and stated, "We are implementing influenza vaccination, antiviral prescription support, surveillance system operation, and promotion of preventive activities in preparation for the influenza season."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.