SCMP "Biden's Military Intervention Remarks Do Not Affect China's Plans"

[Asia Economy Reporter Jo Yoo-jin] The South China Morning Post (SCMP) in Hong Kong reported on the 20th that U.S. President Joe Biden's remarks on Taiwan's defense are unlikely to affect China's plans regarding the Taiwan issue.

SCMP cited expert interviews, stating that President Biden's recent remarks will neither accelerate nor delay China's plans related to Taiwan's unification.

Chinese military expert Pu Chenxiao said Biden's remarks suggest that the U.S. stance on Taiwan has shifted from "strategic ambiguity" to "strategic clarity." The U.S. has maintained strategic ambiguity by providing military support to Taiwan without clearly stating whether it would directly intervene in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

He analyzed, "The Taiwan defense remarks also aim to encourage pro-independence forces in Taiwan," adding, "It appears the U.S. military is adjusting its strategy to mobilize deterrence and control the People's Liberation Army's preparations for war over Taiwan."

Zhou Chenming, a researcher at the Beijing Academy of Military Sciences, also observed, "The White House's ultimate goal is to maintain communication channels with both the Chinese leadership and the People's Liberation Army to understand China's final decisions."

He further predicted, "By doing so, they will prepare for the next steps in strategy, test their course, and attempt to create more tension in the region."

He also pointed out that recent years' speculations by U.S. military commanders about the timing of the People's Liberation Army's forceful occupation of Taiwan are all part of efforts to grasp China's timetable. He stated, "China will choose the appropriate time to resolve the Taiwan issue, and the U.S. will not be able to influence the People's Liberation Army's plans."

Drew Thompson, a visiting senior fellow at the National University of Singapore, judged that China's military plans are likely based on the assumption that the U.S. will directly intervene in any conflict surrounding Taiwan.

He said the U.S. sells weapons to Taiwan and provides opportunities for Taiwan to negotiate with China from a relatively secure position through visits and exchanges, adding, "Taiwan's defense is an essential part of this approach," but "a conflict over Taiwan's defense remains hypothetical."

Military expert Lu Lishi, a graduate of the Taiwan Naval Academy, pointed out that "President Biden's remarks are an example of strategic deterrence." He said, "The U.S. military has realized that dealing with a Taiwan war is too difficult while the Ukraine war is still ongoing."

Cheong Mong, associate professor at Waseda University's School of International Liberal Studies in Japan, said, "Fighting on two fronts, Ukraine and Taiwan, does not align with U.S. interests, so the U.S. seeks to deter any outbreak of war."

He added, "However, China's calculations, focusing on domestic political needs, could severely limit U.S. deterrence."

(Photo by AP News)

In an interview with CBS's "60 Minutes" the previous day, President Biden responded to the host's question about whether U.S. forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion by saying, "Yes, if there is an unprecedented attack."

At a joint press conference following the U.S.-Japan summit in Tokyo on May 23, President Biden also answered "Yes" when asked by a reporter whether the U.S. would militarily intervene to defend Taiwan.

Interpretations have emerged that President Biden's repeated mention of possible military intervention is a "deliberate statement" indicating a change in the U.S. One-China policy.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.