[Asia Report] Myanmar in Turmoil... Still, There Is Hope in the '88 Generation'

Currency Soars After Coup and COVID-19
Energy Crisis Deepens Amidst Instability
Democracy Leader Ko Ko Gyi: "We Must Recognize the Military and Move Toward Federalism"
"Interest from Korea and Other Asian Countries Is Essential"

[Asia Economy] The scene in Yangon, Myanmar, revisited after two years since 2020, appeared quite harsh to outsiders. Soldiers carrying guns and impoverished-looking homeless people, once rare, were now easily encountered not only in the city center but also throughout the streets. The electricity situation was unstable, with frequent blackouts and, naturally, internet outages. This was the aftermath of severe internal turmoil that disrupted relations with the international community and led to a mass exodus of foreign investors and technical personnel.

The National League for Democracy (NLD) government led by Aung San Suu Kyi seemed to have extended its rule by five more years after a landslide victory in the November 2020 elections. However, in the early hours of February 1 the following year, just before the opening of parliament, the military led by Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing staged a coup citing election fraud, instantly undoing a decade of political reforms.

After the coup, both houses of parliament were immediately dissolved, and most media and political activities were banned. In response, young people and citizens launched a Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), an exiled government (NUG) was formed centered around politicians, and in alliance with ethnic minority groups, a People's Defense Force (PDF) was established in border areas to resist the military.

If it had stopped there, the situation might have been described merely as political conflict. The bigger problem was that the coup and street protests by citizens instantly destroyed the COVID-19 prevention system. The Delta variant, which originated in India, swept into neighboring Myanmar, turning the latter half of 2021 into a near hellscape. It was difficult to even compile meaningful statistics on how many citizens died. Locals commonly testified that the number was far higher than what outsiders imagined. Some analyses suggested that the strict movement restrictions on citizens due to the COVID-19 spread helped the coup succeed.

A gas station in downtown Yangon. Myanmar is experiencing difficulties in energy supply due to the depreciation of its currency against the dollar.

▲Currency Surge = Even though the twin storms of the coup and COVID-19 had passed, the scenes in inhabited areas were similar everywhere. Most residents returned to daily life and focused on making a living. Office workers and civil servants returned to their posts, and many university students, considering the deteriorated domestic economy, prepared for overseas employment. The prevailing assessment was that public order and administrative capacity had almost been restored, especially in major cities like Yangon and Mandalay.

Occasional news of clashes between resistance forces and the military appeared, but now the issues troubling citizens more than politics were electricity, internet, and exchange rates. This was due to the severe distortion of almost all infrastructure-related sectors caused by strong international economic sanctions. In a hot country, power outages mean refrigerators stop working, making it inconvenient to store food for long periods. Not only power and water cuts but also the military regime's control over overseas internet services like Facebook and Google to suppress protesters caused serious inconvenience from an outsider’s perspective.

The next step for an economy isolated like a Third World country is the collapse of currency value. The Myanmar currency, the Kyat, maintained about 1,500 Kyat per dollar before 2020, but after the 2021 coup, it quickly exceeded 2,000 Kyat. The exchange rate steadily rose and recently approached 3,000 Kyat on the black market. Without a groundbreaking political compromise, the common concern in Myanmar’s economic circles is that it could rise beyond 3,500 Kyat.

Myanmar had been a steady investment target for our government even before the New Southern Policy. This was due to Myanmar’s geopolitical value at the junction of Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean, and especially the expected future synergy with Myanmar’s youth who have a special affection for Korean Wave (Hallyu). The Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH) had completed preparations to lease a large industrial complex near Yangon, and KOICA planned to establish an MDI in the capital Naypyidaw, modeled after Korea’s KDI (Korea Development Institute), to cooperate. However, these projects have been indefinitely postponed since last year. The Korean community, which once numbered over 3,000 and was approaching 5,000, has drastically shrunk to around 1,000.

Yangon cityscape.

▲Boom in the Garment Industry = One fortunate point is that the garment sector, where Koreans mainly work, has unexpectedly benefited. Myanmar and nearby Bangladesh have some of the lowest labor costs globally, so labor-intensive garment manufacturing had long been a core industry. After the coup, union activities were banned, eliminating wage increase pressures. With the exchange rate soaring, companies that pay wages in Kyat but receive payments mainly in dollars gained unexpected benefits. Where previously they had to pay $200 monthly per worker, now $100 suffices. This sector was excluded from international sanctions.

Jeon Chang-jun, editor-in-chief of ‘Silgwa Baneul’ (Thread and Needle), published by the local Korean garment association, said, “Myanmar’s infrastructure like electricity and roads is near the worst, but the labor cost competitiveness is so high that the garment and clothing industry shows a positive outlook despite political adversity.” This year, even large clothing companies are planning to establish new factories in Myanmar.

Although the garment and clothing industry is enjoying a brief boom, without political stability, it is merely a castle built on sand. The military frequently demonstrated its desire to maintain absolute power throughout the streets, while citizens repeatedly showed their wish for a free environment.

The largest democratization movement in Burma’s history was the so-called ‘8888 Uprising’ on August 8, 1988. The democratization movement was so fierce that nearly 5,000 people died in Yangon alone that year, pushing the Ne Win regime to the brink. The subsequent September coup led by the new military dealt a severe blow to the democratization forces. The 88 Generation students and Aung San Suu Kyi emerged as prominent figures afterward. Since Aung San Suu Kyi, who led the previous government, is now elderly and unlikely to make a comeback, the role of the 88 Generation is once again drawing attention.

▲The 88 Generation in the Spotlight = We were able to interview Ko Ko Gyi (61), chairman of the People’s Party, Myanmar’s third-largest political party. He is a key figure in the democracy group who spent nearly 19 years in prison. However, due to conflicts with Aung San Suu Kyi, he did not participate in the 2016 NLD government and has envisioned politics after Suu Kyi. Recently, expectations abroad have grown. When ASEAN sent a special envoy to Myanmar earlier this year and failed to meet the imprisoned Aung San Suu Kyi, they met Ko Ko Gyi instead, as he was the most representative democratic figure remaining in Yangon.

Chairman of the Kokogji People's Party, representing the third force in Myanmar

He warmly welcomed the author, who came from Korea. Ko Ko Gyi said, “It is not enough to just claim to overthrow the military and make Aung San Suu Kyi president. We must recognize the military’s real power and use it to create a genuine federal state.” His core argument is for a decentralized federal system rather than a centralized one. It is not important who the president is, but that a federal constitution granting sufficient autonomy to ethnic minorities should be negotiated thoroughly with the military. In other words, he diagnoses that Aung San Suu Kyi’s failure was due to insisting on a presidential system centered on the military and the Bamar majority.

He continued, “Many of the 88 Generation, including myself, have deeply considered ‘transitional democracy.’ The military, which has ruled Myanmar for 60 years, obviously has serious problems. But just because we dislike the military doesn’t mean their power will disappear quickly. Regardless of election results, the democratic forces should have formed a grand coalition government, including existing bureaucrats, ethnic minorities, and experts, to prevent the coup in advance. I still believe there is hope in Myanmar. Somehow, democracy and federalism will be restored. I ask Koreans not to lose interest in us.” He emphasized that Asian countries like Korea and Japan must maintain interest and investment to solve Myanmar’s problems.

Jung Ho-jae, author of ‘The Asian Era Comes Like K-Pop’

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.