Will US Midterm Election Dynamics Change? Focus on Abortion and Trump Issues Raises Democratic Hopes

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] The outlook that the upcoming November U.S. midterm elections would favor the Republican Party has begun to waver. Contrary to the initial expectations that various adverse factors, including soaring inflation, would lead to a backlash against the Democratic Party, issues such as women's abortion rights and the search of former President Donald Trump's residence have strengthened Democratic unity. Within the Democratic Party, there is even a mood of expecting to maintain a majority in the House of Representatives.

On the 28th (local time), The Washington Post (WP) reported this citing key figures from the Democratic Party and the current Joe Biden administration, as well as election strategists. Currently, the Democratic Party holds exactly half of the 100 seats in the Senate, sharing the seats evenly with the Republican Party, and holds 221 seats out of 435 in the House of Representatives, barely maintaining a majority (218 seats). In the upcoming November midterm elections, all House seats and about one-third of the Senate seats, approximately 35 seats, will be newly elected.

The Cook Political Report, a U.S. political analysis organization, recently lowered its estimate of the number of additional House seats the Republicans would gain from the initial 20-35 seats to 10-20 seats. While predicting a Republican advantage, The Cook Political Report also mentioned that Democratic support is gradually increasing, adding that the possibility of the Democrats maintaining a House majority cannot be ruled out.

A similar pattern was observed in a poll conducted by CBS News and YouGov from the 24th to 26th among 2,126 registered voters. The survey results predicted that the Republicans would secure 226 seats in the House in the November midterms, still exceeding the majority threshold of 218 seats. However, this is a decrease compared to the 230 seats expected in the June survey.

Traditionally, midterm elections are seen as a referendum on the ruling party, so it was anticipated within the Democratic Party that this would be a challenging contest. Since last year, President Biden's approval ratings have remained low, and with the addition of the worst inflation, there were even predictions of a Republican landslide victory.

However, experts evaluate that the atmosphere is gradually changing. Issues such as abortion rights, investigations related to former President Trump's classified document leaks, the weakness of Republican candidates, and recent oil price declines have helped consolidate Democratic supporters, working favorably for the Democrats and unfavorably for the Republicans. The Biden administration's introduction of the Inflation Reduction Act and student loan forgiveness policies also serve as elements that the Democrats can actively use in their midterm election campaigns.

In particular, the overturning of the 'Roe v. Wade' decision by the U.S. Supreme Court at the end of June, which had recognized women's abortion rights for 50 years, has made abortion a major issue in the midterm elections. Representative examples include the recent special election in New York's 19th congressional district, where Democratic candidate Pat Ryan, who prominently campaigned on abortion rights, won with 51.1% support over the Republican candidate, and the rejection of a state constitutional amendment in the conservative stronghold of Kansas that would have removed abortion protections.

The CBS poll also showed that 41% of respondents said they would vote to protect abortion rights. Among these, 77% of Democratic-leaning respondents agreed, indicating a clear consolidation around the abortion issue. CBS emphasized the need to pay attention to the voting tendencies of college-educated white women, who have played a decisive role in Democratic victories, noting that the Democratic vote share in this group increased from 45% in June to 54% this time.

The Republican Party has expressed concerns about issues arising from the search of Trump's Florida residence and other matters related to the former president. Larry Hogan, governor of Maryland and a prominent anti-Trump figure within the Republican Party, recently expressed in an interview with CBS that while the Republicans are expected to win the House, they may face difficulties securing the Senate or governorships. He said, "Considering the failures of the Democrats who control everything and President Biden's low approval ratings, it will be a really big year for the Republicans."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.