Power Shift After 5 Years: "Dislike of Lee Jae-myung Led to Yoon Seok-youl's Victory and Moon Jae-in's Weak Lame Duck Effect"

Sharp Rise in 'Negative Voting' in 20s Presidential Election
Lee Struggles to Differentiate from Moon... Caught in Negativity
Yoon, Despite Short Political Career, Gains Momentum from Regime Change Hopes

On the 9th, the day of the 20th presidential election, citizens are watching the exit poll results in the waiting room of Seoul Station. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunju Lee] The 20th presidential election, which achieved a regime change for the first time in five years since democratization, showed a significant increase in the proportion of voters who voted "to prevent a disliked candidate from winning" compared to previous elections.

According to the "Analysis of the 20th Presidential Election" report published by the National Assembly Legislative Research Office on the 27th, 29.4% of respondents answered that they voted "to prevent a disliked candidate from winning (negative voting)" in this election. This is about 13 percentage points higher than in the 19th presidential election. In contrast, the proportion of those who voted "because they wanted a supported candidate to win (positive voting)" was 65.5%, down from 79.8% in the previous election.

By age group, the increase in negative voting was greater among younger generations. Compared to the previous election, the 20s age group increased by 23 percentage points, and the 30s by 26 percentage points. Looking at income levels, there was no clear pattern in 2017, but in this election, the trend of higher-income groups voting more negatively was evident. By ideological tendency, the negative voting rate was highest among centrists, followed by progressives and conservatives.

The research office also analyzed that the weak lame-duck phenomenon of former President Moon Jae-in negatively affected Lee Jae-myung, the ruling party candidate at the time. Since support for former President Moon was somewhat maintained, it was difficult for Lee to actively differentiate himself. Additionally, although Lee hoped to appeal more on personal capabilities than party affiliation and to be recognized as an "economic president," he faced difficulties due to intensified negativity.

On the other hand, the People Power Party showed low approval ratings throughout former President Moon's administration but created a turning point by winning the 2021 Seoul and Busan mayoral by-elections. By recruiting candidate Yoon Seok-youl, who had opposed former President Moon, they effectively consolidated public opinion for regime change, the research office evaluated. Despite Yoon's short political career, his position as a Moon administration official at odds with former President Moon embraced the public's expectation for regime change.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.