The End of China's Pressure on Taiwan?... WSJ: "Blockade and Pressure Over Full-Scale War"

"A full-scale invasion is too complex and risky"
The key issue is whether the Chinese military will station troops and normalize training in the future

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Hyunjung] Amid increasing military pressure around the Taiwan Strait following Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visiting Taiwan, there is a forecast that China will not escalate to extreme situations such as a full-scale invasion.

On the 4th (local time), The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) cited assessments from military analysts and China experts, reporting that China has not yet reached the capability to carry out a full-scale invasion. The Journal stated, "China views Taiwan as Chinese territory that can be occupied by force if necessary, and has focused on military buildup for decades to deter the United States, Taiwan's long-standing security partner," but also evaluated that "such an operation (full-scale invasion) is too complex and risky."

It also suggested that rather than forcibly subjugating Taiwan in the future, China is more likely to maintain the current 'cross-strait (兩岸: China and Taiwan) status quo' by increasing pressure. Brian Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, analyzed, "China is focusing on demonstrating that it has blockaded Taiwan militarily," adding, "This is a kind of 'signal.'"

Starting from the 4th, the Chinese military began military exercises involving fighter jets, naval vessels, and ballistic missiles. Military analysts expect China to continue conducting large-scale maritime and aerial exercises to demonstrate control over the Taiwan Strait.

Furthermore, as these exercises have blocked air routes and shipping lanes, causing delays in Taiwan's trade, experts have assessed this as intentional pressure. Taiwan is a major producer of advanced semiconductors essential for manufacturing, from automobiles to weapons.

Meng Xiangqing, a professor at the PLA National Defense University, was quoted by WSJ as diagnosing before the exercises, "The island of Taiwan is surrounded," and "This situation is very favorable for restructuring the strategic situation in a way that aids unification."

Experts also observed that the key issue going forward is whether the Chinese military will continue to station troops in Taiwan and whether large-scale Chinese military exercises around the Taiwan Strait will become routine.

Bradley Martin, a researcher at the U.S. think tank RAND, explained, "China does not want to go to war to achieve its goals," adding, "It is about exerting low-level force rather than overt conflict."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.