"High Mortality Pancreatic Cancer Patients, 16,000 Cases Expected by 2040"

National Cancer Center Analyzes Trends in Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Cancer
"Need for Prevention and Early Detection Policy Development"

National Cancer Center exterior view.

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Gwan-joo] The incidence of pancreatic cancer, known for its difficulty in early detection and high mortality rate, is continuously increasing, and it is predicted to be 2.3 times higher in 2040 compared to 2017.

On the 26th, a research team led by Han Sung-sik, Director of the National Cancer Center's Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Cancer Center, along with specialist Park Hyung-min and head of the Cancer Registration Surveillance Department Jeong Gyu-won, announced the results of their analysis on the trends and future predictions of incidence and mortality rates of hepatobiliary and pancreatic cancers (liver cancer, gallbladder cancer, bile duct cancer, ampulla of Vater cancer, pancreatic cancer) in Korea.

Until now, there have been no long-term predictive studies focusing on detailed incidence and mortality rates limited to liver, pancreatic, and biliary cancers. Some countries, including the United States, have reported past cancer incidence rates and future change predictions based on their national cancer registration systems, but these analyses were limited to major cancer types in each country.

The research team conducted the study using cancer registration data from the National Cancer Data Center and mortality data from Statistics Korea, employing age-period-cohort analysis methods. They analyzed the past epidemiological changes in incidence and mortality rates of hepatobiliary and pancreatic cancers in Korea and predicted future trends up to 2040.

The results showed that the number of pancreatic cancer cases and deaths will continuously increase, making pancreatic cancer the most common cancer type in terms of incidence and mortality among hepatobiliary and pancreatic cancers. The number of pancreatic cancer cases is estimated to rise from 7,032 in 2017 to 16,170 in 2040, a 2.3-fold increase.

Han Sung-sik, Director of the Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Cancer Center, stated, “Given the analysis showing an increase in the incidence and mortality of hepatobiliary and pancreatic cancers, preparations at both the medical community and government levels are necessary across prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.” He added, “We hope this study will serve as a basis for developing policies and emphasizing the need for prevention and early detection of hepatobiliary and pancreatic cancers.”

This study was published in the latest issue of the Journal of Korean Medical Science (JKMS).

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.