'The Power of Meokgosanism' Macron Faces Majority Collapse, Biden Trails Trump

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] "I can't buy sausages. Everything has surpassed my salary. My biggest concern is inflation."

On the 19th, the day of the French legislative election (local time), Fabrice Belly, a voter in his 40s living near Paris, said this in an interview with The Wall Street Journal (WSJ). He voted for the candidate of NUPES led by Jean-Luc M?lenchon, the leader of La France Insoumise (LFI), in this election.

The painful prices decided the outcome of the French legislative election. When news came that the centrist pro-government coalition failed to secure a majority of seats in this election, President Emmanuel Macron remained silent. Instead, ?lisabeth Borne, the first female prime minister in 30 years appointed last month, stepped forward and said, calling it an "unprecedented situation," that the country is in crisis due to the election results.

◇"Prices over Ukraine War"… Macron Fails to Win Voters' Hearts

Since winning the presidential election in April, the Macron government tried to respond quickly to the price issue but failed to win over voters. Compared to the April presidential election, French voters showed increased interest in inflation ahead of the legislative election. Meanwhile, M?lenchon gained voters' support by pledging to freeze essential living costs and raise the minimum wage.

According to a survey by French polling agency IFOP, two inflation-related issues?purchasing power (2nd) and energy prices (4th)?were included among the top five priorities voters considered important. The ranking of energy prices rose from 6th two months ago. On the other hand, the security issues emphasized by President Macron dropped from 3rd to 5th. The leading French daily Le Figaro pointed out the inflation problem, saying, "The first concern of the French people is purchasing power."

While President Macron focused on diplomatic and defense issues such as the Russia-Ukraine war ahead of the election, Prime Minister Borne focused on domestic inflation issues and effectively ran a proxy election campaign. Eleven days after her appointment, on the 27th of last month, Borne raised the cost of living as the top priority for the next government. However, it seems to have been too late to win back the hearts of voters who had turned away.

French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne [Photo by EPA]

As a result of this election, Macron's second term will inevitably focus more on price stabilization as the top priority. The Guardian daily pointed out, "President Macron faces uncertainty about how to form alliances to push through key legislation this summer after this defeat," adding, "He is first confronted with a cost-of-living crisis. Macron promised new subsidies, pension increases, and tax cuts, and now he must present them to the parliament."

◇"Because of Prices" US, Japan, Australia, UK Politics Also Facing Growing Concerns

As inflation shakes the fate of governments, it has become a key issue for political leaders worldwide. The Japanese Nikkei newspaper reported that in a poll conducted from the 17th to 19th, the approval rating of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's cabinet dropped by 6 percentage points to 60% compared to the previous month. Especially in this survey, 69% of respondents negatively evaluated the government's and ruling party's inflation control measures, up 8 percentage points from the previous month. With 64% saying they "cannot tolerate" rising prices due to energy price hikes and yen depreciation, dissatisfaction with government measures was high and is believed to have affected approval ratings.

In the United States, experiencing the worst inflation in 40 years, President Joe Biden recently accepted for the first time poll results showing he would lose in a hypothetical rematch against former President Donald Trump. Six out of ten respondents expressed dissatisfaction with Biden's economic management, indicating that his approval rating is shaken by rising prices. Inflation has emerged as the biggest challenge for the Democratic Party ahead of the US midterm elections in November.

President Joe Biden of the United States

Last month in Australia, the Labor Party replaced the Liberal-National coalition led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison after 8 years and 9 months. At that time, Australian prices were at their highest level since 2001, and housing prices surged due to the COVID-19 aftermath, leading to strong voter resentment against the incumbent government.

In the UK, where the annual inflation rate is expected to reach 11% this year, the cost of living issue has become a key matter ahead of the by-election on the 23rd. Politico reported, "One of the main concerns of voters ahead of the by-election has become the cost of living." UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who narrowly survived a no-confidence vote recently, may resign if the ruling party loses the by-election, raising the possibility that the price issue could shake UK politics as well.

◇Impact on French Economic Reform and Ukraine Issues Inevitable

President Macron, defeated in the legislative election, is expected to focus on domestic affairs for the time being. Accordingly, his pro-European Union (EU) stance is also expected to be affected. Since opposition leaders M?lenchon and Le Pen are EU skeptics, their increased influence in the French parliament is likely to oppose President Macron. Consequently, there is analysis that Macron's response to the Ukraine situation, which he had directly managed including visiting Ukraine ahead of the election, may also change.

The immediate problem Macron must solve is forming political alliances. Currently, it is impossible to pass legislation in parliament with Macron's 'Ensemble' alone, so he must find parties to ally with.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.