[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Why Is Kim Jong-un Delaying the 7th Nuclear Test?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] There is speculation that North Korea's 7th nuclear test may be postponed to the second half of the year. Experts on North Korea emphasize the need to analyze environmental and technical factors. Since the full-scale rainy season begins in late this month, the timing may have been missed, and North Korea could be buying time to improve its nuclear weapon miniaturization technology.

A government official said on the 15th, "It is true that recent movements of mobile launchers (TEL) have been detected in North Korea, but it is judged that these are not high-intensity provocations such as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)." He added, "There is a high possibility that preparations for the 7th nuclear test will resume after August, depending on diplomatic circumstances."

North Korea has avoided conducting nuclear tests during the summer rainy season. The 1st nuclear test (October 2006), 2nd (May 2009), 3rd (February 2013), 4th (January 2016), 5th (September 2016), and 6th (September 2017) were all carried out in spring (once), autumn (three times), or winter (twice). All were conducted on dry, clear mornings. This indicates a preference for autumn over summer, when the southeast wind could spread radioactive contamination.

Since the 9th, the area near the Punggye-ri nuclear test site has generally experienced cloudy weather or rain forecasts. As of the 15th, North Korea's weather includes strong winds of 5 m/s and showers of 5 to 20 mm. Poor weather is expected to continue through this week. If rain is forecast, there is a high probability that measuring equipment will malfunction during a nuclear test. Additionally, radioactive materials could seep below the surface or flow into rivers due to rainwater, and the ground could weaken.

Before pushing ahead with the 6th nuclear test, North Korea declared its possession of nuclear weapons at the 7th Workers' Party Congress held in May 2016. From March 2017, signs of nuclear testing appeared, such as concentrating personnel at the Punggye-ri test site. However, the nuclear test was conducted in September of that year. The day before the test, Chairman Kim Jong-un visited the nuclear weapons research institute and said, "We must vigorously carry out the battle to complete the country's nuclear forces." Therefore, there is speculation that the test could be conducted on the Republic's founding day (September 9, 9/9) or the Workers' Party founding day (October 10, 10/10).

The postponement theory also involves internal factors within North Korea, notably COVID-19, which began at the end of April. North Korea may declare the end of the COVID-19 crisis to prevent public unrest and maintain discipline, and then delay the nuclear test. Cho Jung-hoon, spokesperson for the Ministry of Unification, also said at a regular briefing, "There is a possibility that North Korea will announce the resolution of the COVID crisis in June."

Inside and outside the military, it is expected that North Korea will push ahead with additional nuclear tests to be recognized as a nuclear-armed state. Although the international community has not recognized North Korea's declaration of nuclear force completion after the 6th nuclear test and the launch of the Hwasong-15 ICBM, India and Pakistan conducted six nuclear tests each and were subsequently recognized as potential nuclear powers, which contrasts with North Korea's situation.

If North Korea proceeds with the 7th nuclear test, it may conduct development tests of 2 to 3 multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) for the Hwasong-17 ICBM, or test low-yield tactical nuclear weapons that can be mounted on delivery systems such as the improved KN-23 missile.

A government official said, "North Korea is likely coordinating the timing of the 7th nuclear test card with diplomatic issues such as the extended deterrence policy between South Korea and the U.S. and China's November Party Congress."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.