[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea's Nuclear Test Imminent... 3 Supporting Reasons

Possibility of North Korea's 7th Nuclear Test Around This Weekend
US Warns "Closely Monitoring North Korea's Actions... Strong Response if Nuclear Test Occurs"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] As North Korea prepares for its 7th nuclear test, it is reported that the nuclear test is highly likely to take place around this weekend. Experts on North Korea emphasize that political, internal, and environmental factors must be considered when determining the timing of the nuclear test.

Jake Sullivan, U.S. National Security Advisor, warned during a press briefing on the 8th (local time) in response to reporters' questions, "The United States is clearly monitoring (North Korea's activities) and continues to respond to the tests conducted by North Korea," adding that there will be a strong response if a nuclear test occurs. This indicates that North Korea's preparation for the nuclear test is imminent.

Internally, North Korea is also expected to consider the timing of political events. On the 8th, North Korea convened an expanded meeting of the 5th Plenary Session of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party. The plenary session is a major meeting body where North Korea discusses important national affairs and decides key policy directions. Kim Jong-un attended this expanded plenary session, but the specific agenda has not yet been disclosed.

Typically, plenary sessions last several days, and it is expected that a decision regarding the 7th nuclear test will be announced around the weekend. It was also observed that Kim Jong-un's absence from the previously held Politburo meeting for the first time might have been to inspect preparations for the nuclear test.

Internally, the nuclear test could be carried out to appease public sentiment. The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) estimated in the latest edition of the World Factbook that North Korea currently faces a food shortage of 860,000 tons, equivalent to two to three months' supply. Without food imports or aid, North Korean citizens would endure harsh times. Additionally, the spread of COVID-19 likely worsened public unrest.

Environmentally, it seems difficult to postpone beyond the end of June. It is generally difficult to conduct nuclear tests during the monsoon season, which starts at the end of June. North Korea conducted six nuclear tests between 2006 and 2017, but none were carried out during the monsoon months of June to August.

Internal Factors - Food Shortage and COVID-19 Fuel Public Unrest in North Korea
Environmental Factors - Monsoon Season Starts End of June... Six Nuclear Tests Avoided This Period
External Factors - Need for a Response Card if North Korea Nuclear Pressure Policy Emerges from Shangri-La Dialogue

External factors could also accelerate the nuclear test. From today until the 12th, the Asia Security Conference (Shangri-La Dialogue), hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in Singapore, is taking place. Defense Minister Lee Jong-seop is attending and is scheduled to hold talks with Wei Fenghe, China's Defense Minister, during the conference. South Korea and China are expected to hold their first defense ministerial talks in two years and seven months in Singapore this week.

It is anticipated that South Korea and China will likely discuss issues related to the U.S. high-altitude missile defense system (THAAD) base located in Seongju, Gyeongbuk, rather than North Korea-related matters. This is because the South Korean government recently expressed intentions to "normalize" the THAAD base, which has been in a "temporary deployment" status for five years. Both South Korea and China emphasize "maintaining friendly relations" this year, marking the 30th anniversary of diplomatic ties, so even if there are disagreements over THAAD, it is expected that these conflicts will not surface openly.

However, China may defend North Korea's provocations, potentially supporting North Korea. As North Korea's most important ally, China, along with Russia, recently exercised veto power at the United Nations Security Council against a resolution imposing additional sanctions following North Korea's resumption of ICBM test launches. Therefore, even if the defense ministers of South Korea and China discuss North Korea's nuclear and missile development issues, it is expected to be difficult to find a "clever solution" to restrain provocations due to the nature of the matter.

North Korea may conduct the nuclear test at the end of the Shangri-La Dialogue. This timing would allow North Korea to send a message to the international community and assert its presence. North Korea did not conduct a nuclear test during President Biden's recent visit, but the day after he left Japan, North Korea fired three missiles consecutively, including an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and short-range ballistic missiles, continuing its show of force.

Additionally, after the trilateral North Korea nuclear chief representatives' talks among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan in Seoul on the 3rd issued a message strongly condemning North Korea's ballistic missile provocations, North Korea launched eight short-range ballistic missiles simultaneously on the 5th, marking its 18th show of force this year.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.