[War & Business] Putin Unable to Declare War

On March 3rd (local time), a Russian soldier who deserted during combat and surrendered to the Ukrainian army (second from the left) is seen tearfully drinking tea given by Ukrainian residents. [Image source=Ukrainian Army Twitter]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Russian authorities are reportedly struggling over how to try deserters who recently abandoned the front lines in Ukraine. Although hundreds of deserters have appeared simultaneously on major fronts, there is no proper way to punish them.

Under Russian military law, desertion during an official wartime situation is punishable by a minimum of 10 years imprisonment unless there are special circumstances. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not officially declared war by the government but rather a “special military operation” limited to the Donbas region, so wartime military law does not apply.

As a result, deserters receive only mild punishments, such as dismissal from the military without severance pay and expulsion back to their hometowns. Even though Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly demands that deserters be executed by firing squad, the Russian government currently has no legal means to impose harsh penalties on them.

Despite this irony, the Russian government has been reluctant to issue a formal declaration of war. An official declaration would enable the announcement of a nationwide mobilization order, allowing Russia to concentrate its full military power on the Ukrainian front. Even with continued Western weapons support from the U.S. and others, the prevailing view is that if Russia commits its full strength, Ukraine will not be able to hold out and will quickly collapse.

Nevertheless, the reason the Putin regime hesitates to declare war is believed to be political anguish over mobilizing residents of Russia’s central regions, especially around Moscow, who form its core support base. If many of these people participate in the war and die, the population will decrease, leading to a drop in approval ratings and potentially destabilizing the regime.

Because of this, most conscripts since the start of the war have been drawn not from the Moscow vicinity but from poor minority regions such as Siberia. Most residents in these areas live on incomes below Russia’s minimum subsistence level of 10,000 rubles per month (about 200,000 KRW), so they are naturally eager to accept conscription support payments of 170,000 rubles per month. This also explains why most Russian military casualties on the Ukrainian front are soldiers from Siberia or Central Asia.

Conversely, residents of major Russian cities including Moscow are mostly exempt from conscription. Even if some volunteer, these soldiers are not sent to dangerous front lines. The Russian Ministry of Defense is also known to prioritize confirming casualties among soldiers from Moscow and nearby regions over the total number of casualties.

Russian military officials and experts generally agree that it would be less damaging to declare war, issue a general mobilization order, and overwhelm the Ukrainian forces to end the war quickly. However, the dictator cannot choose an option that would undermine his own support base. Thus, a vicious cycle continues in which only the extremely poor, driven by hardship, exchange money for their lives.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.