The 'Era of Progressive Dominance' in Superintendent Elections Ends... Conservatives Win 8 out of 17 Places

Effect of Conservative Candidate Unification Evident
Gyeonggi, Busan, Chungbuk, Gangwon, Jeju Shift from Progressive to Conservative
Incumbent Premium Weaker Than Before
Only 9 Out of 13 Incumbent Superintendents Elected
Cho Hee-yeon Becomes First to Serve Three Terms Since Direct Elections

The era of progressive education superintendents came to an end with the June 1 local elections. Along with the change in administration, conservative candidates made significant gains compared to the previous election, and the unification premium had a greater effect than the incumbent premium.

Among the 17 metropolitan cities and provinces, conservative education superintendent candidates won in 8 regions (Gyeonggi, Busan, Daejeon, Daegu, Gyeongbuk, Chungbuk, Gangwon, Jeju), while progressive education superintendents were elected in 9 regions (Seoul, Incheon, Sejong, Chungnam, Jeonbuk, Gwangju, Jeonnam, Ulsan, Gyeongnam). This marks a notable shift from the 2018 election, where progressives won in 13 regions, and the 2014 election, where they won in 14 regions. In Gyeonggi, Busan, Chungbuk, Gangwon, and Jeju, conservative education superintendents replaced the previous progressive incumbents.

The formula "unification = victory" was proven once again. Among the seven regions where conservative candidates succeeded in unification, four (Gyeonggi, Chungbuk, Jeju, Daegu) saw those candidates elected. The three regions where progressive education superintendents won a third term (Seoul, Chungnam, Sejong) share the commonality that conservative candidates failed to unify. The rise of conservative education superintendents is interpreted as a result of the change in administration, concerns over academic achievement gaps caused by COVID-19, fatigue over policies such as innovation schools and the abolition of autonomous private high schools, foreign language high schools, and international high schools.

The incumbent premium also did not exert as much influence compared to previous elections. Thirteen incumbent education superintendents ran for re-election or a third term, but only nine were elected. In Busan (Ha Yoon-su), Chungbuk (Yoon Geon-young), and Jeju (Kim Kwang-soo), conservative candidates defeated incumbent progressive education superintendents. In the 2018 election, 11 progressive education superintendents ran for re-election or a third term and were elected.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Cho Hee-yeon, Seoul’s education superintendent, succeeded in winning a third term for the first time since the introduction of direct elections. As of 9 a.m. on the 2nd (with a 99.75% vote count), he received 38.09% of the vote. This is lower than his previous vote share of 46.6%. The combined vote share of conservative candidates Cho Jeon-hyeok (23.50%), Park Sun-young (23.08%), and Cho Young-dal (6.64%) exceeded 50%, but due to failure to unify, they lost to Superintendent Cho. Superintendent Cho said, "I will actively benchmark issues raised by competing candidates such as basic academic skills, childcare, improving the quality of after-school programs, and expanding free early childhood education," adding, "I will strive to realize high-quality public education, a major transition to future education, and become an education superintendent for all, beyond division and confrontation."

With the election of candidate Lim Tae-hee as Gyeonggi Province’s education superintendent, the position switched to a conservative for the first time in 13 years. Former Superintendent Lee Jae-jung did not run for a third term, and Lim defeated candidate Sung Ki-seon in a head-to-head contest. Lim pledged to abolish the 9 a.m. school start time and introduce breakfast programs for elementary students. In Busan, where a conservative education superintendent was born, candidate Ha Yoon-su defeated incumbent candidate Kim Seok-jun, who was running for a third term. Ha promised to implement academic diagnostic assessments, strengthen character education, and establish the Busan Academic Evaluation Research Institute.

The rise of conservative education superintendents is expected to bring significant changes to local education policies. In regions where conservative education superintendents were elected, the academic diagnostic assessment, known as the Ilje exam, is expected to be reinstated, and attempts to revise school human rights ordinances are likely to continue. In regions where progressive education superintendents were elected, conflicts with the government over the abolition of autonomous private high schools, foreign language high schools, and international high schools are inevitable. Since there are nine progressive candidates, it is expected that the national education commissioner, an ex officio member of the National Education Commission launching in July, will come from the progressive camp, making a tug-of-war over early government education policies unavoidable.

Song Ki-chang, professor of education at Sookmyung Women’s University, said, "The number of students falling below basic academic skills has increased, private education expenses have not decreased, and uniformity through innovation education has caused strong resistance among parents. They seem to have felt that nothing improved even when electing progressive education superintendents," adding, "This year’s election was not a ‘blind election.’ Although there was a tendency to vote for incumbents without considering candidates or policies, this time many new candidates were elected, making it an election where incumbents were not favored."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.