Will Seoul Education Superintendent Cho Hee-yeon Succeed in a Third Term?... 48% Undecided Voters Are a Variable

Polls from the 23rd to 25th show Cho Hee-yeon leading with 25.4%
Progressives dominate in 8 of 17 metropolitan education offices
Gyeonggi, Busan, Incheon, Jeju in close race within margin of error
In 2018 election, progressive education superintendents won in 14 regions

On the 1st, the day of the 8th nationwide local elections, voters are casting their precious votes at the 5th polling station of Bukgajwa 2-dong, set up at the coffee shop SANMEAG in Seodaemun-gu, Seoul. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Han Jinju] Attention is focused on whether former Seoul Superintendent of Education Cho Hee-yeon will succeed in winning a third term in the Seoul Superintendent of Education election or if the conservative camp candidate will be replaced.

There are a total of six candidates running for Seoul Superintendent of Education. Including Cho Hee-yeon, who succeeded in unifying with candidate Kang Shin-man, Choi Bo-seon belongs to the moderate-progressive camp, while Park Sun-young, Cho Young-dal, Cho Jeon-hyuk, and Yoon Ho-sang belong to the moderate-conservative camp.

In a public opinion poll conducted from May 23 to 25 by the three major broadcasters (MBC, KBS, SBS) through Korea Research targeting 1,002 Seoul citizens, candidate Cho Hee-yeon ranked first with 25.4%.

Even when combining the vote shares of conservative candidates, they trail behind Cho Hee-yeon. The support rates by candidate are Park Sun-young 11.1%, Cho Jeon-hyuk 9.6%, Cho Young-dal 3.0%, and Yoon Ho-sang 1.4%. Yoon Ho-sang has 1.4%, and Choi Bo-seon has 0.6%. The undecided or 'no preferred candidate' group accounted for 48.4%, which could act as a variable.

The conservative candidates have held multiple discussions on unification but ultimately failed to reach an agreement. Up until two days before the election, unification talks were held among Park Sun-young, Cho Jeon-hyuk, and Cho Young-dal, but deepening emotional rifts between candidates led to the final negotiations failing.

In the June 1 local elections, it will be a key point to watch which side, conservative or progressive, stands out among the 17 city and provincial superintendents of education. In the 2018 election, progressive superintendents were elected in 14 regions except Daejeon, Daegu, and Gyeongbuk. According to the May 23-25 poll by the three broadcasters, progressive candidates lead in eight regions including Seoul, Gwangju, Ulsan, Sejong, Chungnam, Jeonbuk, Gyeongnam, and Jeonnam, while conservative candidates lead in five regions: Gangwon, Chungbuk, Daejeon, Daegu, and Gyeongbuk.

Gyeonggi, Busan, Incheon, and Jeju are competitive regions within the margin of error. With the regime change and the difficulty of the incumbent premium applying, it is hard to predict the results until the last moment.

In the battleground Gyeonggi Province, incumbent Superintendent Lee Jae-jung did not run, and this is the first time a progressive-conservative face-off has been formed. Conservative-leaning candidate Lim Tae-hee (former Chief of the Blue House Presidential Office) leads progressive-leaning candidate Sung Ki-seon (former Director of the Curriculum Evaluation Institute) by 15.2% to 13.9%, but the undecided rate is as high as 70.9%. In Busan, incumbent Superintendent Kim Seok-jun is ahead of conservative-leaning candidate Ha Yoon-soo by 5 percentage points.

The poll was conducted by Korea Research, Hankook Research, and Ipsos on behalf of KBS, MBC, and SBS from May 23 to 25 through telephone interviews with 14,020 men and women nationwide aged 18 and older. The margin of error by region is ±3.1%P to ±3.5%P at a 95% confidence level.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.