Growing Pains Following the Lifting of Social Distancing Measures?

New COVID-19 Cases Continue to Decline Before Plateauing
Analysis of Increased Activity During Early May Holidays

On the 8th, the temporary screening clinic set up at Peace Plaza in World Cup Park, Mapo-gu, Seoul, is showing a quiet scene. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Chun-hee] The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the spread of the Omicron variant has continued to decline but now appears to have entered a plateau phase.

This is analyzed to be due to the lifting of social distancing measures such as the removal of business hour restrictions and the outdoor mask mandate. As activities have significantly increased since May, the speed of new variant inflows into the country is expected to act as a variable for a potential resurgence.

According to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) on the 9th, the number of new confirmed cases as of midnight was 20,601. Although this is a significant decrease compared to the 300,000 to 400,000 range seen in March, for the first time since March 18, the number of new cases increased for two consecutive days compared to the same days of the previous week. The number of new cases on the previous day was 40,064, which is 1.06 times higher than on the 1st (37,760), and on the 9th, it increased by 1.03 times compared to the 2nd (20,076).

This appears to be due to increased activity following a series of eased quarantine measures. Although most citizens continue to wear masks outdoors even after the outdoor mask mandate was lifted, the overall vigilance in quarantine has decreased amid the full lifting of business hour restrictions and the complete allowance of eating in multi-use facilities. During the consecutive holidays including Children’s Day and Parents’ Day, major tourist and amusement facilities were crowded with people.

On the morning of the 8th, as Lotte World Adventure in Jamsil, Songpa-gu, Seoul opened, visitors lined up to enter. [Image source=Yonhap News]

Professor Baek Soon-young, Emeritus Professor at the Catholic University School of Medicine, said, "Daily new confirmed cases are expected to continue at a minimum of 20,000 and a maximum of 30,000 to 40,000 for the time being," but added, "Given the ongoing easing of quarantine measures such as the mask mandate removal, this is inevitable and can be considered a stable situation." The KDCA explained, "It is difficult to evaluate the trend of the scale of confirmed cases based on daily changes," and added, "Since the peak of about 400,000 weekly average cases in the third week of March, the number has been decreasing for seven consecutive weeks, and we are closely monitoring trend fluctuations."

The number of critically ill patients and deaths, which affect the medical system, is also maintaining a stable trend. On this day, the number of critically ill patients was 421, remaining in the 400s for 10 consecutive days, and the weekly average number of deaths dropped to 63. Considering that the number of critically ill patients and deaths lags behind confirmed cases by about 2 to 3 weeks, a continuous decline is expected.

The continuous emergence of new variants is also considered a risk factor. On the 3rd, the Omicron BA.2.12.1 variant (commonly called the ‘New York variant’), known to spread about 25% faster than the previously known ‘Stealth Omicron’ BA.2, was first confirmed in Korea. However, this case was imported from the United States, and no additional transmission cases have been confirmed.

Recently, in the United States, the BA.2.12.1 variant has rapidly spread, causing a resurgence of COVID-19. The weekly average number of new confirmed cases in the U.S. surged from the high 20,000s in early March to the 70,000s as of the 6th of this month, showing a sharp rebound. Within the U.S. government, an emergency scenario has been proposed that if the current situation continues without separate measures, up to 100 million new confirmed cases could occur this fall and winter.

However, even though new variants continue to emerge, since they remain subvariants of the less severe Omicron variant, it is expected that they will not pose a significant risk to the quarantine situation. Professor Baek analyzed, "Although immune evasion functions may increase transmissibility and reinfections may occur, symptoms are unlikely to be severe," adding, "Of course, there are concerns, but the impact on our medical system will not be significant."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.