Is the Omicron 'Long Tail' Beginning? "Holidays and Eased Quarantine Measures Are Variables"

On the morning of the 3rd, the temporary screening clinic at Peace Plaza in World Cup Park, Mapo-gu, Seoul, five days before its scheduled closure, appeared quiet. [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hwang Sumi] As the spread of COVID-19 continues to stabilize, attention is focused on how long the downward trend will last. Amid this, concerns are emerging that the so-called 'long tail of Omicron,' characterized by a plateau in the number of confirmed cases at a certain level, may have already begun.

According to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) Central Disease Control Headquarters (CDCH) on the 8th, as of midnight, the number of new COVID-19 cases was 40,064, maintaining below 50,000 for the fifth consecutive day.

The immediate outlook is not bad. Among experts, the prevailing expectation is that the scale of the outbreak will continue to decline for the time being, considering factors such as the infection reproduction number.

According to the 'COVID-19 Outbreak Forecast Analyzed by Mathematical Modeling' report released on the 4th by the COVID-19 Mathematical Modeling Task Force (TF), Professor Jeong Eun-ok's research team at Konkuk University predicted that if the current infection reproduction number (0.69) is maintained, the daily new confirmed cases will decrease to 30,700 by the 11th. Furthermore, it is expected to decrease to 22,200 after two weeks and to 12,100 after four weeks.

Kwon Oh-gyu, head of the Public Data Analysis Team at the National Institute for Mathematical Sciences, analyzed mobility data at the eup, myeon, and dong levels collected from mobile communication location data and the cumulative confirmed cases by city and province from the 26th of last month to the 3rd of this month. As a result, he predicted that the daily number of confirmed cases will continue to decrease and fall below 10,000 within a week.

However, there are concerns that this downward trend may slow down or the duration of the decrease may be short due to variables such as the lifting of social distancing and outdoor mask mandates, or the influx of foreign variant viruses. Additionally, the population mobility significantly increased during the extended holiday from Children's Day on the 5th through the weekend, which also needs to be monitored.

Accordingly, some view the scale of confirmed cases next week as an important turning point to reassess the future trend of the outbreak.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.