[Global Issue+] Eyes on Russia's 77th Victory Day... Will It Be a Turning Point in the Ukraine Crisis?

Various Scenarios Including Declaration of All-Out War and Victory Announcement
Intense Shelling on Ukraine's Donbas... War Damage Continues to Expand

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The world is on edge ahead of Russia's 77th Victory Day commemorating the end of World War II, held on the 9th. The course of the Ukraine war is expected to change significantly depending on whether President Vladimir Putin will declare an all-out war on Ukraine or announce victory and proceed with formal ceasefire negotiations during this Victory Day.

For now, the Russian military is expanding airstrikes mainly around the Donbas region of Ukraine, so the war is not expected to end immediately. However, considering the accumulated losses of the Russian forces and the deteriorated public sentiment due to Western economic sanctions, there are cautious forecasts that it will be difficult to prolong the war for a much longer period.

Ukraine: "Putin to Declare All-Out War on Victory Day"

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

The Ukrainian government fears that President Putin will declare an all-out war on Ukraine and issue a massive national mobilization order during this Victory Day ceremony. According to the British BBC on the 7th (local time), Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence, said in an interview with local media New Times, "The Russian government has already secretly issued a mobilization order and is preparing to announce a public general mobilization soon," adding, "It doesn't make sense to declare victory on Victory Day and simultaneously issue a mobilization order; I am curious how they will explain this to their people."

So far, the Russian government has never officially declared an all-out war against Ukraine. The entire invasion has been termed a "special military operation" aimed at supporting the pro-Russian separatist regimes within the Donbas region. Accordingly, neither a general mobilization nor a wartime regime has been declared. It is known that within the Russian military, as personnel and material losses mount, there are calls for the declaration of a general mobilization to enable large-scale troop deployment.

A large-scale general mobilization has never been implemented since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, so it is expected to be a significant burden for the Russian government. If a full declaration is made and a general mobilization order is issued, a wartime mobilization system would be activated, martial law declared, all Russian borders closed, and trade with foreign countries completely cut off, potentially worsening the economic crisis.

Possibility of Victory Declaration Followed by Negotiations... "Russian Losses Larger Than Expected"

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Conversely, there is also analysis suggesting that Russia might opt not to escalate further but instead declare victory while aiming to strengthen effective control over currently occupied territories and then proceed with peace negotiations. This view is based on the assessment that Russia finds it difficult to sustain a prolonged war given the unexpectedly large scale of its war losses.

Russia is estimated to have suffered massive losses in this war. According to CNN, Russian forces have reportedly incurred over 20,000 casualties among the total mobilized troops, lost thousands of tanks and armored vehicles, and exhausted more than 75% of their precision-guided missiles, making it difficult to sustain a long-term war. Economic damage due to Western sanctions is also severe.

Ben Noble, Associate Professor of Russian Politics at University College London (UCL), told the British Guardian, "The Putin regime is well aware of the enormous political and economic damage that would result if the war continues here," adding, "President Putin will try to produce some form of victory declaration on Victory Day, and even if his supporters are disappointed with the war's outcomes, he will emphasize that this war is not just against Ukraine but against the entire Western alliance, including NATO."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.