[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Possibility of Full Deployment of US Strategic Assets in Case of North Korean Nuclear Test

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] As North Korea continues to launch ballistic missiles one after another, there are growing expectations that it will soon press the button for its 7th nuclear test. With the inauguration of President-elect Yoon on the 10th and the South Korea-US summit on the 21st, North Korea is expected to increase its negotiating power and internally hint at the possibility of a 'preemptive nuclear strike,' which could lead to a more overt development of tactical nuclear weapons. This is seen as a way to deeply imprint the possibility of a 'nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula' on South Korea and the US, while also enhancing future negotiation cards.

Military experts evaluate North Korea's launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on the 4th as a mode of provocation aimed at external audiences. Since North Korea broke the moratorium on March 24, it is expected to continue various provocations. In particular, it is anticipated that North Korea will carry out provocations with the purpose of 'preemptive positioning' in line with the inauguration of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration, which has announced a 'hardline policy toward North Korea.'

North Korea has carried out provocations around presidential inaugurations. One day before President Roh Moo-hyun's inauguration (February 24, 2003), it launched the anti-ship cruise missile 'Geumseong-1.' Thirteen days before President Park Geun-hye's inauguration (February 12, 2013), North Korea conducted its 3rd nuclear test. At that time, President Lee Myung-bak and President-elect Park Geun-hye held an emergency meeting. During the 2017 presidential election when Moon Jae-in was elected, missile provocations continued throughout May, when the new government was inaugurated.

Defense Minister nominee Lee Jong-seop also mentioned at the National Assembly Defense Committee confirmation hearing, "It is presumed that North Korea is preparing for a nuclear test," and added, "Generally, it is judged that it would be a small tactical nuclear weapon." Regarding the level of North Korea's provocations, he said, "Tactical provocations are unlikely due to our military's firm readiness, but the possibility cannot be ruled out. Strategic provocations are expected to continue."

If North Korea continues provocations including nuclear tests, US strategic assets are expected to appear frequently on the Korean Peninsula. The Ministry of National Defense reportedly included in its recent transition team briefing a plan to redeploy US strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula if North Korea carries out provocations such as ICBM launches. It was also reported that the South Korea-US expanded deterrence strategy consultation body (EDSCG), which began during the Park Geun-hye administration but was suspended under the current government, will be practically reactivated to discuss the permanent rotational deployment and operation of US strategic assets.

US aircraft carriers Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) and Nimitz (CVN-68) conducted joint exercises with the South Korean Navy in November 2017. When a US Navy carrier strike group operates, it is typically accompanied by 3 to 4 destroyers and more than 2 nuclear-powered submarines.

At Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana, strategic bombers such as the B-52H 'Stratofortress,' B-1B 'Lancer,' and B-2 'Spirit' are on standby. The B-52 strategic bomber was withdrawn to the mainland during the Donald Trump administration in 2020 but has been scheduled for rotational deployment again. The B-52 also flew over the Korean Peninsula as a warning to North Korea during the axe murder incident at Panmunjom in 1976.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.