Shoigu Sitting Beside Putin Again... Concerns Over Rise of Hardliners in Russia

Criticized Early in the War and Missing for Two Weeks... Purge Rumors Circulate
Hardline Faction Resurges... Concerns Over War Expansion and Prolonged Conflict

Vladimir Putin (left), President of Russia, is meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu at the Kremlin Palace in Moscow on the 21st (local time). President Putin instructed Minister Shoigu to cancel the plan to launch a full-scale attack on the Azovstal steel plant, where the Ukrainian forces in Mariupol are making their last stand, and to blockade it instead. Courtesy of the Kremlin Palace. Moscow (Russia) = AP·Yonhap News Photo by XXX

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Hyun-woo] A photo has been released showing Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who disappeared for two weeks last month amid rumors of a purge, sitting face-to-face with Russian President Vladimir Putin and officially reporting the fall of Mariupol. Recently, as Russian forces have shown some success in the Donbas and southern regions of Ukraine, Shoigu’s position appears to be strengthening again after facing political crisis and responsibility claims for a series of defeats early in the war.

With the Victory Day commemorations of World War II scheduled for the 9th of next month, President Putin is expected to highlight the achievements in the Donbas battles. If the hawkish faction centered around Shoigu continues to gain influence, there are concerns that the Putin regime may escalate the war or engage in a prolonged conflict.

On the 21st (local time), the Kremlin released a photo of Minister Shoigu sitting directly in front of President Putin, reporting on the situation of Mariupol’s capture. This is the first time since the invasion of Ukraine began on February 24 that a photo has been released showing Shoigu sitting at the same table facing Putin.

Early War Responsibility... Shoigu Couldn’t Even Look at Putin’s Face

On February 27 (local time), Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu (second from left) was summoned by Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and reprimanded in the Kremlin Palace conference room. They are seated at a distance where facial recognition is difficult. Moscow, Russia = AP·Yonhap News Agency

At the start of the war, Shoigu faced a political crisis amid controversies over repeated defeats and poor performance by Russian forces. According to the British BBC, Shoigu had reported to President Putin just before the invasion that the war would end within a week, but after the invasion began, the massive losses suffered by Russian troops provoked Putin’s anger.

On the 27th, three days after the invasion, Putin personally summoned Shoigu to the Kremlin and harshly reprimanded him for the Russian military’s defeats and operational failures. In photos released by the Kremlin at the time, Shoigu is seen sitting in a corner of the Kremlin meeting room with Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov, receiving Putin’s reprimand from a distance.

Afterward, Shoigu disappeared from public view for two weeks from March 11 to 26, sparking rumors of a purge. Ukrainian sources claimed that Shoigu was dismissed on March 14 due to responsibility for the defeats and that he was critically ill, even suggesting poisoning. However, when he appeared publicly on March 27, the purge rumors subsided for the time being.

Mariupol Fall and Donbas Offensive Propaganda Lead to Reinstatement... Concerns Over Hawkish Faction’s Rise

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Following Shoigu’s return, the Russian military undertook a major operational revision, limiting offensive objectives to Donbas and southern Ukrainian Black Sea coastal cities. Additionally, Alexander Dvornikov, commander of the Southern Military District known for indiscriminate bombing during the Syrian civil war, was newly appointed as the overall commander of the invasion forces.

During Shoigu’s absence, peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, which had shown signs of progress, effectively collapsed. After the fifth round of peace talks in Istanbul, Turkey, on the 29th of last month, the two sides were negotiating issues such as Ukraine’s neutrality, but Russia’s renewed large-scale Donbas offensive and revelations of civilian massacres in Bucha completely derailed the talks.

With Shoigu reestablished as a close aide to President Putin, concerns are rising that the hawkish faction within Russia will regain strength. According to The New York Times (NYT), Shoigu is regarded as one of Putin’s closest confidants and has led Russian military reforms since Putin’s rise to power. He is also known as a hardliner who advocated for the annexation of Crimea during the 2014 forced annexation.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.