Samsung Securities "Raises KOSPI Bottom in Q2... Up to 2950 in June"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Seon-ae] Samsung Securities forecasted that the KOSPI will rise to a peak of 2950 in June as it raises its low point in the second quarter of this year.

On the 30th, Samsung Securities presented the expected KOSPI band for the second quarter of this year as 2650 to 2950, anticipating a stepwise rise in the low point within the box range: ▲ April 2650 to 2850 ▲ May 2700 to 2900 ▲ June 2750 to 2950.

The basis for expecting a stepwise rise in the low point within the box range in the second quarter includes △ the market, which doubted the Federal Reserve (Fed), transforming into a market that supports the Fed △ securing rock-bottom value merit in the second quarter as a result of the first quarter panic △ a change in market characteristics to being insensitive to negative factors and sensitive to positive factors.

Researcher Kim Yong-gu explained, "The first quarter was an 'unknown world' dominated by unexpected negative factors and domestic and international uncertainties, but the second quarter will be a 'familiar world' where uncertainties become clearer and the market gradually finds its footing against pre-reflected negative factors."

He presented the conditions that would guarantee the resumption of a mid- to long-term bull market cycle as ▲ easing concerns about stagflation (economic slowdown amid high inflation) ▲ global liquidity expansion ▲ a shift to a weaker US dollar ▲ securing the advantage of the lowest point.

He added, "From this perspective, the stock market in the second quarter is unlikely to be a bull market, and a decline in expected returns and an increase in market fatigue are inevitable," diagnosing that "the bull market cycle driven by the rebound effect of the global COVID-19 pandemic and major countries' policy momentum ended around the first quarter."

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