[Global Focus] Biden Heads to Europe... Risk of Being Hampered by Prolonged War and Inflation

Gasoline Prices Rise Due to Russian Crude Oil Import Ban
77% of Americans Support Energy Sanctions
Biden's Approval Rating Jumps Since War

From the 24th, NATO, EU, and G7 Leaders to Discuss Ukraine War in Belgium
Need to Push for Additional Russian Sanctions
Germany and Others Hesitant on Crude Oil Import Ban

President Joe Biden [Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Cho Hyun-ui] On March 12, 1947, in the early Cold War period, U.S. President Harry Truman declared in a congressional speech, "We will support free peoples who are resisting armed minorities or external pressures." This was a response to Britain, which could no longer provide aid to Greece and Turkey, requesting the U.S. to support these countries threatened by the Soviet Union. In this speech, known as the 'Truman Doctrine,' the 'armed minorities' referred to communists in Greece and Turkey, and the 'external' referred to the Soviet Union. Truman's foreign policy is credited with ultimately leading to the dissolution of the Soviet Union through containment measures such as economic isolation.

Seventy-five years later, on February 24, 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the United States once again employed a similar policy. President Joe Biden, in his first State of the Union address on the 1st, focused heavily on the Ukraine war. Like President Truman, he promised continuous military, economic, and humanitarian support for Ukraine. However, unlike the Truman Doctrine, which did not directly mention the Soviet Union, Biden openly criticized the Russian government. He referred to Russian President Vladimir Putin without honorifics as 'Putin' and emphasized, "History has taught us that when dictators do not pay the price for aggression, it leads to more chaos."

Containment Policy Reemerges After 75 Years

The Biden administration is supplying weapons to the Ukrainian military and imposing extensive economic sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. This is a reapplication of the containment policy used during the Cold War to prevent the expansion of communist forces and to weaken the Soviet Union internally until its collapse. Richard Fontaine, president of the U.S. think tank Center for a New American Security, told The Economist, "The U.S. has returned to classic containment policy," explaining that the policy aims to block Russian expansion and weaken it, ultimately hoping for a change in political leadership. Former U.S. Republican Congressman Rooney wrote in The Hill, "If Putin wants a Cold War, then so be it," adding, "If he wants to return to the days of the Soviet Union, the U.S. must revive the Truman Doctrine." The U.S. government hopes that Russia will eventually retreat due to long-term international isolation and economic crises. Alina Polyakova of the European Policy Institute said, "The fight between the U.S. and Russia has now entered a long-distance race and a kind of 'twilight struggle.'"

Some of the sanctions imposed on Russia by the U.S. are directly impacting the American economy. However, the majority of Americans view these measures as ways to support Ukraine and punish Russia, showing strong approval. In fact, despite a sharp rise in gasoline prices following the U.S. ban on Russian oil imports, nearly 8 out of 10 Americans support the sanctions. According to a CBS poll conducted from the 8th to 11th (local time) with 2,088 adults, 77% of respondents supported the measures, while only 23% opposed them. Even with soaring gasoline prices, 63% still supported the sanctions. Notably, the sanctions on Russian oil and natural gas have garnered bipartisan support: 84% of Democrats, 76% of Republicans, and 75% of independents support the ban on Russian oil imports. The Economist described this as "the Ukraine crisis uniting Democrats and Republicans," and The Atlantic said, "Putin has united America."

Biden: Was It the Best Choice? Approval Ratings Soar

The U.S.'s tough stance against Russia's invasion of Ukraine has garnered support from the majority of Americans, boosting President Biden's approval ratings, which had been at their lowest during his term. According to a survey conducted by NPR from the 1st to 2nd with 1,322 adults, Biden's approval rating rose to 47%, an 8% increase compared to the survey conducted just before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Considering that his approval rating had fallen to 33% at the end of January due to soaring inflation?the highest in 40 years?and the resurgence of COVID-19 since August last year, this is an encouraging level.

Local media particularly noted that Republican support for Biden's approval rating reached double digits (10%) for the first time in eight months since July last year. Forbes analyzed, "Biden's approval rating saw an unusual surge after the State of the Union address on the 2nd," adding, "The overall increase in approval is thanks to Democrats and independents, but Republican support jumped from 6% to 10% within a week."

Some expect the Democratic Party to leverage Biden's actions to win the midterm elections in November, but there are voices expressing skepticism about the Democrats' victory, as the economy remains the key issue in domestic elections. The Washington Post stated, "The White House calls it 'Putin-driven inflation,' but if prices remain high throughout this summer, it will inevitably burden the Democrats." CNN predicted, "Biden's performance related to the Ukraine crisis will not significantly help the elections."

However, within the conservative camp, there are also many criticisms of Biden's response. Some argue that a stronger U.S. response from the beginning could have prevented the invasion. John Bolton, former U.S. National Security Council (NSC) advisor, recently told Germany's RND in an interview, "It was a big mistake for NATO and the U.S. under Biden to keep emphasizing that there would be no kind of intervention." He claimed that by excluding the possibility of Western intervention from the start, Putin was emboldened to act more boldly.

President Joe Biden [Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Biden's European Tour: Another Crucial Test

President Biden's upcoming European tour scheduled for the 24th is expected to be another important test for him. If the Russia crisis prolongs and shocks to the global economy intensify, Biden's political standing could become precarious.

On the 24th, Biden will meet with NATO allies, European Union (EU) member state leaders, and leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) in Brussels, Belgium, followed by a summit with Polish President Andrzej Duda in Poland on the 25th. Following his phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the 18th, attention is focused on what solutions Biden will derive with European allies during this visit.

During this tour, Biden faces the challenge of securing additional sanctions against Russia from allies. Some European countries, such as Germany, which have high energy dependence on Russia, are hesitant about banning oil imports that could severely impact the Russian economy. In contrast, countries bordering Russia, like Poland, are demanding strong sanctions.

Additionally, international economic cooperation measures to resolve soaring inflation and global supply chain disruptions must be discussed. Biden faces the difficult task of managing both Russia and economic issues simultaneously.

The Guardian pointed out, "The U.S. and European allies must make Putin pay as high a price as possible for his invasion of Ukraine while preventing the conflict from escalating into a broader and more dangerous war."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.