North Korea Likely to Launch ICBM This Week... Weather a Variable (Comprehensive)

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] As North Korea's likelihood of conducting an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test launch this week increases, Sung Kim, the U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy, has called for China to publicly condemn the act.

The U.S. State Department confirmed in a press release on the 13th (local time) that Representative Kim and Liu Xiaoming (劉曉明), China's Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Affairs, held a phone call on the 10th, during which "Representative Kim strongly condemned North Korea's missile launch." This was the first phone conversation between the two sides since the 22nd of last month.

The recent U.S.-China phone call was initiated to condemn North Korea's performance tests of a new ICBM conducted on February 26 and earlier this month on the 4th. The State Department added that China was urged to persuade North Korea to cease provocative actions and return to dialogue.

South Korea and the U.S. anticipate that North Korea may conduct an additional performance test of the new ICBM as early as the beginning of this week. If another launch is carried out, it is expected to test the new ICBM's performance using a transporter erector launcher (TEL), similar to the previous two launches. However, weather conditions are expected to be the biggest variable.

North Korea conducted test launches for performance evaluation of the new ICBM (Hwasong-17) at the Sunan Airfield near Pyongyang on the 27th of last month and the 5th of this month. Initially, South Korean and U.S. authorities assessed the missile as a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) with a shorter range than an ICBM based on its range and altitude specifications, but later, through detailed analysis, it was determined that the tests involved performance evaluation using the Hwasong-17's body. Authorities from both countries believe that North Korea is likely to conduct a live-fire test of the ICBM's range soon.

Additionally, a Joint Chiefs of Staff official stated regarding the restoration activities at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, "South Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies are tracking and monitoring overall North Korean military activities, major facilities, and surrounding areas," adding, "We are closely watching related developments and maintaining a readiness posture."

At a meeting with reporters on the 14th, a Joint Chiefs of Staff official responded to questions about North Korea's potential additional launches of the new ICBM, saying, "It is difficult to predict the timing, but South Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies are closely monitoring related developments in preparation for the possibility of additional launches and maintaining a firm readiness posture."

National Security Office Director Suh Hoon reportedly informed President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol on the 12th that "North Korea's additional missile launches are imminent." The Blue House stated, "We have briefed on recent North Korean missile test launches and the situation in Ukraine, and we will continue cooperation to respond thoroughly to diplomatic and security issues during the government transition period."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.