[Desk Column] The Era Where 'Security' Overwhelms 'Economy'

Jae-Hyung Jeong, Head of Finance Department

Until Russia's recent invasion of Ukraine, the country was mainly associated with its "fertile black soil region." While I had heard of the "Orange Revolution" (2004), I was unaware of the "Euromaidan" protests (2014).

When Russia fought the war in Georgia (2008) and annexed the Crimean Peninsula (2014), I believed that there were many pro-Russian people in those regions and that the outcomes reflected their wishes. If Russia had only recognized the two republics in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine this time, I would have viewed it the same way.

However, with the outbreak of full-scale war, I sought out various books, materials, and YouTube videos. I learned about the 1932?1933 "Holodomor" (famine genocide) carried out during Stalin's collectivization campaign in the Soviet era, as well as the repression of Ukrainian nationalists. Professor Olena Shehel, who teaches Ukrainian at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, said, "The relationship between Ukraine and Russia is similar to that between Korea and Japan," but in my opinion, it is far more serious than the Korea-Japan relationship. At least 2 to 7 million people were not starved to death. I now understand why Ukrainians are resisting Russia's invasion so fiercely.

The issue is not simple. Behind the Ukraine crisis lies a massive clash and confrontation of worldviews?a civilizational fault line. On the 21st, just before the invasion, Putin gave a speech lasting over an hour, asserting the fateful and historical unity of Russia and Ukraine. Some experts have pointed out that Putin's ideological foundation is "Greater Eurasianism." Greater Eurasianism claims that Russia is the Third Rome, succeeding both the Western and Eastern Roman Empires; that Russian Orthodoxy is its soul; and that Moscow is the capital of all Eastern Orthodox churches and world civilization. It argues that Russian civilization should lead Europe and Asia and even guide Islamic and Asian Confucian civilizations. Western civilization is seen as the root cause of humanity's corruption. The brain behind Greater Eurasianism is said to be Russian thinker Alexander Dugin (1962?).

Putin's Greater Eurasianism overlaps with Xi Jinping's "Chinese Dream (Zhongguo Meng, the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation)." Both leaders are nicknamed the "21st-century Tsar" and the "First Emperor," respectively, sharing nationalism and totalitarianism. The "glory of the Soviet Union," which formed a bipolar system with the United States during the Cold War, contrasts with the "splendor of China," which was the wealthiest and most powerful country for most of history before the Western Industrial Revolution.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said, "Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a 'turning point of the era' that threatens the postwar world order." China is on a worsening path with the United States over the Taiwan issue. It is also in conflict with the free democratic camp over Hong Kong's democracy crackdown, human rights issues in Xinjiang and among the Uyghurs, unfair trade practices such as technology theft and subsidies. Putin told then-U.S. President George W. Bush in 2008 that "Ukraine is not a real country," and Xi Jinping told then-U.S. President Donald Trump in 2017 that "Korea was once part of China."

Clearly, a time when security will overshadow the economy is approaching. The economy concerns "eating better or less," but security is a matter of "life or death." The choice is obvious.

If geopolitical conflicts between the free democratic camp and the totalitarian camp deepen, the economic system will inevitably be affected, though perhaps not to the extent seen during the Cold War. Advanced technologies and products are already at the stage of "supply chain separation." Since raw materials such as rare metals, oil, and gas can be weaponized, preparations for "supply chain separation" are necessary. In the future, only low-tech, low value-added industries, labor-intensive industries, and primary industries might be exceptionally traded freely as in the era of globalization.

On the 24th, the United States announced export control regulations on Russia under the "Foreign Direct Product Rule (FDPR)" at the time of Russia's invasion, granting FDPR exemptions only to the European Union (EU), the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan, which joined the sanctions. South Korea notified the U.S. of its decision to block strategic exports to Russia only on the 28th and received the exemption on the 4th.

The policy of "Anmi Gyeongjung (安美經中)"?security with the U.S., economy with China?is no longer viable. Although the timing is uncertain, South Korea may face a time when it must join the unofficial security forum "Quad" (U.S., India, Japan, Australia).

In any case, we must learn lessons from what has become clear through the Ukraine crisis. It is no longer an era of peace or globalization. The outcome of the Ukraine crisis will greatly influence when, how, and in what form a new international order will be established. I sincerely hope Ukraine endures well.

"Don't cry, Ukraine! The world stands with you."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.