Will the 'Yoon Seok-yeol + Ahn Cheol-soo > Lee Jae-myung' Formula Be Established?

Results from Embrain Public released on the 3rd... If unified, Yoon Seok-yeol 47.4% · Lee Jae-myung 41.5%
If unification fails, Yoon Seok-yeol 43.7% · Lee Jae-myung 40.4%... Considered effective
However, the gap in approval ratings may narrow if unified, which cannot be ruled out

Yoon Seok-yeol, the presidential candidate of the People Power Party, and Ahn Cheol-soo, the presidential candidate of the People Party, are shaking hands after concluding a unification press conference at the National Assembly Communication Office on the morning of the 3rd. Photo by the National Assembly Press Photographers Group

[Asia Economy Reporters Kum Boryeong and Park Juni] A survey released on the 3rd showed that if Yoon Seok-yeol, the People Power Party presidential candidate, and Ahn Cheol-soo, the People’s Party presidential candidate, unify the opposition, they could surpass Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, by a margin beyond the margin of error.

A survey conducted by JoongAng Ilbo through polling firm Embrain Public from the 28th of last month to the 2nd of this month, targeting 2,013 men and women nationwide aged 18 and over (with a sampling error of ±2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), showed that if Yoon unified with Ahn and ran as a single opposition candidate, his support rate was 47.4%. Lee’s support rate was 41.5%, showing a 5.9 percentage point gap beyond the margin of error from Yoon.

In a multi-candidate race without unification, Yoon’s support rate was 43.7%, and Lee’s was 40.4%, showing a 3.3 percentage point difference within the margin of error. Based on this survey alone, the effect of opposition unification appears to exist.

However, the possibility that the support gap between Lee and Yoon could actually narrow after unification cannot be ruled out. According to a survey conducted by Munhwa Ilbo through Embrain Public from the 1st to the 2nd of this month, targeting 1,002 men and women nationwide aged 18 and over (with a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), when asked about their preferred candidate in a ‘four-candidate race,’ Lee had 41.9% support and Yoon had 43.7%, a 1.8 percentage point gap. However, in a ‘two-candidate race’ between Lee and Yoon, Lee had 45.0% and Yoon had 45.9%, narrowing the support gap to 0.9 percentage points. This suggests that the gap between the two candidates could shrink further if they unify.

In a survey conducted by Seoul Shinmun through Korea Gallup from the 25th to the 26th of last month, targeting 1,004 men and women nationwide aged 18 and over (with a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), when asked about a three-candidate race between Lee, Yoon, and Shim Sang-jung, the Justice Party presidential candidate, Lee had 40.4% support and Yoon had 44.8%. In a four-candidate race, Lee had 37.2% and Yoon had 42.3%, showing a 5.1 percentage point gap, which was larger than in the three-candidate race. It appears that Ahn’s votes were dispersed among all three candidates.

For more details, please refer to the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.