Is Ukraine Likely to Join the EU?

Uncertain Despite Friendly Atmosphere
EU Commission President's Remarks Also Symbolic

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Cho Hyun-ui] Ukraine, which is under invasion by Russia, has pulled out the European Union (EU) membership card, but the possibility of final approval remains uncertain.

According to the New York Times (NYT) on the 1st (local time), Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed the EU membership application the day before and requested, "Please approve immediately through a special procedure."

Joining the EU is a long-cherished goal of Ukraine, along with joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Eight Central and Eastern European member countries, including Poland, also issued a statement of support, saying, "Grant Ukraine immediate member status," and ambassadors of member countries agreed on the same day to call for an initial assessment of Ukraine's EU membership possibility. Although public opinion in Europe is favorable, the actual realization remains uncertain.

The NYT analyzed that EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's earlier statement in a media interview, "We hope Ukraine becomes a member of the EU," was a "symbolic remark." This is because there are many hurdles to overcome before becoming a member, including application, obtaining candidate status, formal membership negotiations, and approval.

Foreign media have evaluated EU membership as a "laborious and difficult process" that takes more than 10 years. Unanimous approval from all 27 member countries is required, and a certain level of political, judicial, and economic systems must be established to apply the EU common legal framework. A senior EU official said, "It can take up to 18 months just to evaluate a country's application."

For this reason, Poland, which officially requested EU membership in 1994, received final approval only in 2004, ten years later. Croatia, which joined last in 2013, also took about ten years from application to becoming a member.

The ‘fast track’ requested by President Zelensky is also unlikely to be realistic. Although Sweden and Finland are precedents, such cases are very rare and may provoke opposition from countries like Turkey and Serbia, which have been negotiating membership for over a decade. Additionally, the EU feels burdened by economic crises, Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic, and Hungary’s violations of treaties and laws when it comes to expanding its membership.

The NYT explained, "Ukraine's EU membership process will proceed gradually," but also stated, "Ukraine's attempts to build close relations with Europe and NATO have the opposite effect of the Kremlin's attempt to forcibly return Ukraine to Russian territory."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.