[Summary] North Korea Missile Launch... Military Provocations Resume

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] On the 27th, North Korea launched an unidentified projectile into the East Sea. This launch marks the 8th military provocation of the new year and comes 28 days after the launch of the medium-range ballistic missile ‘Hwasong-12’ on the 30th of last month.

On the same day, the Joint Chiefs of Staff stated in a text message sent to the press corps, "North Korea launched an unidentified projectile in an eastward direction."

Military authorities have been promptly notifying the media when ballistic missiles are detected, raising the possibility that the projectile was a ballistic missile. Detailed specifications such as range, altitude, and speed are currently under analysis.

North Korea has refrained from provocations during the Olympics out of consideration for its ‘blood alliance’ with China, but the card of breaking the moratorium on nuclear tests and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test launches, declared last month, remains active. However, with domestic and international events that could influence North Korea’s ‘provocation clock’ scheduled, it is expected that Pyongyang will observe the situation and choose the optimal timing rather than immediately carrying out military provocations.

Military authorities anticipate that North Korea will continue military provocations through April, following the South Korean presidential election on March 9. On the 4th, North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un sent a congratulatory message to Chinese President Xi Jinping, wishing success for the Beijing Olympics while indirectly signaling a temporary halt to military actions.

April marks the Taeyangjeol (Kim Il-sung’s birthday), North Korea’s biggest holiday. North Korea is likely to use the joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises (South Korea-U.S. drills) as a pretext for provocations. Given that the drills are expected to be postponed until April due to the presidential election and the spread of the COVID-19 Omicron variant, North Korea is highly likely to carry out military provocations timed with the drills. Around this time, large-scale military parades or missile launches may occur.

The U.S.-Russia conflict is also a variable. The Ukraine crisis could accelerate North Korea’s provocations by expanding the confrontation line between the U.S. and Russia into Northeast Asia, putting the Biden administration in a difficult position. There is a scenario where the North Korea-China-Russia alliance front could be used as a pressure card against the U.S.

On the 21st of last month, the National Intelligence Service reported to the National Assembly Intelligence Committee that there is a high possibility North Korea will launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) under the pretext of a satellite launch. Ha Tae-kyung, the opposition party’s secretary of the Intelligence Committee and a member of the People Power Party, stated at the time, "The National Intelligence Service analyzed the cards North Korea could show and concluded that launching an ICBM from Dongchang-ri is the most likely scenario."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.