"Russia Likely to Pursue Regime Change or Donbas Annexation Following Kyiv Airstrikes"

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Russia announced that it will dispatch peacekeeping forces to the pro-Russian rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region, marking a sudden military intervention and raising concerns about a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

According to the British BBC on the 21st (local time), experts are broadly dividing Russia's invasion scenarios into two. The first is to immediately bomb the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and establish a pro-Russian regime, and the second is a delaying operation by occupying the entire eastern Ukraine region between Donbas and the Crimean Peninsula to pressure the West.

Michael Kofman, a Russia expert at the U.S. Naval Analysis Center (CNA), said, "One of the options being considered is to attack and occupy Kyiv immediately with 30,000 elite troops deployed near the Belarus border adjacent to Kyiv and overwhelming air power, then replace Ukraine's government with a pro-Russian regime."

However, as Ukrainian forces are expected to resist strongly, it is more likely that Russia will focus on firmly controlling the Donbas region rather than attacking Kyiv directly. Previously, during the 2014 Crimean Peninsula invasion, Russia recognized the pro-Russian rebel organization in Crimea as the Republic of Crimea, dispatched peacekeeping forces under that pretext, and then led a referendum within the Republic of Crimea to annex it to Russia.

Seth Jones, a counterterrorism and security expert at the U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), analyzed, "Russia is highly likely to strengthen its de facto control by deploying troops to the Donbas region under the pretext of peacekeeping forces and not withdrawing until its demands are met. If they control the entire eastern Ukraine region between Crimea and Donbas from this base, Ukraine will lose most of its industrial areas except for the wheat-growing regions, making economic self-sufficiency extremely difficult."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.