Around 100,000 Daily Confirmed Cases... Severe and Critical Patients Expected to Increase Significantly by Weekend

Three Major Risk Factors for Rapid Increase in Severe Cases
① Frequent Outbreaks in Hospitals and Nursing Facilities
② Bed Shortages and Medical Staff Infections
③ Risk of Neglecting Other Emergency Patients

On the 20th, when the number of new COVID-19 cases remained in the 100,000s for the third consecutive day, citizens visited the temporary screening center at Seoul Station. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

[Asia Economy reporters Jo In-kyung and Lee Chun-hee] With the Omicron variant pandemic continuing, daily new confirmed cases have hovered around 100,000 for six consecutive days, leading to a rapid increase in critically ill patients and deaths. Experts warn that critically ill and death cases are expected to surge further, calling for proactive measures.

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters on the 21st, as of midnight, the nationwide new COVID-19 cases increased by 95,362, bringing the cumulative total to 2,058,184. The number of critically ill patients approached 500. Since surpassing 300 on the 14th, critically ill patients rose to 408 on the 19th and reached 480 on this day. There is typically a 2-3 week lag between the surge in confirmed cases and the rise in critically ill and death cases. Considering that new cases exceeded 50,000 on the 10th and 100,000 on the 18th, a sharp increase in critically ill patients is expected around this weekend.

Hospitals and Nursing Facilities Most Vulnerable

Last month, medical staff communicated via walkie-talkies at Hyemin Hospital, a dedicated COVID-19 hospital in Gwangjin-gu, Seoul. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

The greatest risk factor is the frequent cluster infections occurring in hospitals and nursing facilities where high-risk groups are concentrated. Cluster infections have been reported consecutively at nursing hospitals such as Jeonju in Jeonbuk (171 cases) and a hospital in Boseong-gun, Jeonnam (139 cases), with patients in their 70s and 80s experiencing rapid symptom deterioration and death after infection.

Accordingly, the death rate among hospitalized critically ill patients has recently surged sharply. On December 23 last year, when the highest number of deaths (109) was recorded, there were 1,083 critically ill patients, with a death rate of 10.1%. On the 15th, despite only 314 critically ill patients, 61 deaths were confirmed, pushing the death rate to a staggering 19.4%. The average death rate over the past week was also high at 12.8% (50 deaths) compared to 388 critically ill patients.

The government, recognizing the waning immunity of these groups through vaccination, began administering the fourth dose on the 14th to immunocompromised individuals and those hospitalized, admitted, or working in nursing hospitals and facilities. However, due to requirements such as a four-month (120-day) interval after the third dose, only 898 people had received the fourth dose as of the previous day.

Shortage of Beds and Medical Staff Expected

Even if the severity rate of the Omicron variant is low, an increase in total confirmed cases inevitably leads to more critically ill patients, increasing the burden on medical capacity. The occupancy rate of COVID-19 intensive care beds, which remained in the 10% range during the lull, surged to 35.4% as of 5 p.m. the previous day. Jeonnam (59.1%) and Gwangju (51.9%), where the Omicron wave began earliest, have exceeded 50% occupancy.

In Suwon, a 7-month-old infant diagnosed with COVID-19 and in isolation could not find a hospital bed quickly and was declared dead immediately upon arrival at the hospital, highlighting issues in patient transport. Similar to the 'ambulance refugees' situation during the Delta variant surge at the end of last year, where patients wandered in ambulances unable to find beds, such scenarios may recur.

Infections among medical staff are also problematic. As community transmission grows, infections among healthcare workers both inside and outside hospitals are inevitable. Considering those quarantined due to close contact, even if the current approximately 2,000 intensive care beds are maximized, it is uncertain whether sufficient operational staff can be secured.

Concerns Over Treatment Gaps for General Patients

[Image source=Yonhap News]

As the COVID-19 crisis intensifies, there is an increasing risk that treatment for general emergency patients will be neglected. The government, considering that virus shedding risk has disappeared, has been transferring COVID-19 patients to general beds and hospitals after a certain period instead of dedicated COVID-19 beds, which may lead to a shortage of general beds. Furthermore, if the government's 'Business Continuity Plan (BCP) for Medical Staff Infection' is implemented, allowing COVID-19 patients to be admitted to general wards, the medical staff available for general patients is expected to decrease further.

Professor Jung Jae-hoon of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Gachon University College of Medicine said, "Since a very large number of critically ill patients are expected within one or two months, it is necessary not only to secure beds numerically but also to provide active support in terms of practical operation." He added, "Efficient allocation of resources is needed to minimize damage to both mild COVID-19 patients and general patients outside of COVID-19."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.