Yoon Leads Beyond Margin of Error in 5 out of 7 Locations

Election Campaign First Week Approval Rating Changes
Only Two Polling Agencies Show Close Race

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] Multiple public opinion polls have shown that the gap in approval ratings between Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, and Yoon Seok-youl, the presidential candidate of the People Power Party, has widened beyond the margin of error just over a week into the official election campaign. Among seven polls released on the 20th and 21st, Yoon led Lee beyond the margin of error in five, while two showed a close race within the margin of error.

According to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission on the 21st, before the official election campaign began on the 15th, only one of the seven polling organizations showed a gap beyond the margin of error between the two candidates. However, in polls conducted during the first week of the campaign, this number increased to five. As the presidential election approaches, the consolidation of support bases is accelerating, with Yoon’s rise in approval ratings standing out comparatively.

In a poll conducted by Realmeter commissioned by OhmyNews (June 13?18, 3,043 respondents aged 18 and over), Yoon received 42.9% support, while Lee received 38.7%, leading beyond the margin of error (±1.8%p). Compared to the previous poll (June 6?11), Yoon’s support rose by 1.3 percentage points, while Lee’s dropped by 0.4 percentage points, widening the gap from 2.5 to 4.2 percentage points.

In a poll conducted by Southern Post commissioned by CBS (June 18?19, 1,001 respondents aged 18 and over), Yoon had 40.2% support and Lee 31.4%, with a gap of 8.8 percentage points beyond the margin of error (±3.1%p). In the previous poll (June 12), Yoon and Lee were neck and neck at 35.5% and 35.0%, respectively, but Yoon’s support increased by 4.7 percentage points while Lee’s dropped by 3.6 percentage points, widening the gap.

Similarly, a poll conducted by Kantar Korea commissioned by Seoul Economic Daily on June 18?19 showed Yoon at 41.3% and Lee at 32.2%, a gap of 9.1 percentage points beyond the margin of error (±3.1%p). In the previous poll (June 12?13, commissioned by Chosun Ilbo and TV Chosun), Yoon had 38.8% and Lee 33.2%, within the margin of error.

Additionally, in polls by People Networks Research (PNR) and Research & Research, both showed a close race within the margin of error before the official campaign, but in polls conducted on June 18?19, Yoon (PNR 47.6%, Research & Research 43.3%) led Lee (39.8%, 36.4%) beyond the margin of error (±3.1%p, ±2.2%p).

The only polls showing a close race within the margin of error were those by the Korean Social Opinion Institute (KSOI) and Korea Research. Among these, the only poll showing Lee leading within the margin of error was KSOI (June 18?19, 1,002 respondents aged 18 and over, with a sampling error of ±3.1%p at 95% confidence level). In the KSOI poll, Lee had 43.7% support and Yoon 42.2%, a gap of 1.5 percentage points. Lee’s support rose by 3.3 percentage points compared to the previous poll (June 11?12), while Yoon’s dropped by 1.3 percentage points. A distinguishing feature of the KSOI poll was its use of 100% wireless automated response method, unlike other polls.

For detailed information on each poll, please refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission’s website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.