The World Cried for 'Coal Phase-Out'... But Coal Demand Increased

China and India Account for Two-Thirds of Global Coal Consumption
"Coal Demand to Continue Rising Until 2024"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Hyung-gil] Although "coal phase-out" has emerged as a new global agenda, last year’s global coal demand actually increased. It is forecasted that demand for coal for power generation and heating will continue to rise as the world economy rapidly recovers after COVID-19.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) on the 20th, last year’s global coal demand is estimated to have increased by about 6% compared to the previous year, reaching 7.96 billion tons.

This is close to the level recorded during the peak coal consumption period of 2013-2014, and the increase is comparable to that seen in 2010 after the global financial crisis.

The rapid recovery of the global economy after the spread of COVID-19 and increased electricity demand in some regions are the main reasons. Additionally, global gas prices surged to record highs due to supply shortages, and adverse weather conditions caused renewable energy generation to fall below expectations, leading to increased demand for coal-fired power generation.

IEA projects that coal demand this year will exceed the 2013 level and is expected to rise to 8.031 billion tons in 2024. The rapid increase in electricity demand in China, India, and Southeast Asian countries, which rely heavily on coal as a primary power source, is cited as the cause.

From 2021 to 2024, coal-fired power generation is expected to increase by 4% in China, 11% in India, and 12% in Southeast Asia, while the share of coal-fired power generation is predicted to decline by 21% in the United States and 30% in the European Union (EU), indicating a downward trend.

Furthermore, due to the increase in coal demand, coal production last year is estimated to have risen by 4.5% compared to the previous year, reaching 7.889 billion tons. This is slightly below the pre-COVID-19 level of 2019.

To address the global coal supply shortage, coal-producing countries such as China, India, Indonesia, and Russia have increased production, and global coal production this year is expected to reach a record high of 8.111 billion tons. Additionally, global coal supply in 2024 is projected to reach 8.014 billion tons, an increase of 125 million tons compared to 2021.

This increase in global coal consumption since 2021 is analyzed to have further distanced the achievement of the "net zero" target by 2050.

Net zero refers to the goal of balancing the amount of greenhouse gases (carbon) emitted from fossil fuels by absorbing an equivalent amount through investments in clean energy, effectively reducing net greenhouse gas emissions to zero.

Kim Su-rin, a senior researcher at the Korea Energy Economics Institute, pointed out, "Although global investments in renewable energy are actively underway, coal demand and production will continue to increase until 2024. Without rapid and sufficient increases in funding for clean energy and technologies, energy supply instability may occur in several countries."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.