[So Jongseop's Political Analysis] The 3 Key Variables That Will Decide the Presidential Election: Unification, Unexpected Factors, and Voter Turnout

The official election campaign to choose the next president began on the 15th. Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate (left), started his first campaign rally in front of Busan Bujeon Station on the same day. Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party presidential candidate, held a kickoff ceremony at Cheonggye Square in Jung-gu, Seoul. Afterwards, Candidate Lee headed north along the Gyeongbu Line towards Seoul, while Candidate Yoon traveled south along the line towards Busan.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

The official campaign for the 20th presidential election, to be held on March 9, has begun. The curtain has risen on a fierce battle that will last 22 days. Fourteen candidates are running in the presidential election, and 28 candidates have thrown their hats into the ring for the five by-elections, including Seoul Jongno district.

This presidential election is regarded as one of the most negative elections in history. Future visions are missing, and there is no grand agenda in sight. Instead, it has been marred by allegations related to the so-called 'two major candidates,' Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party and Yoon Seok-youl of the People Power Party. Various suspicions have also been raised concerning the candidates' spouses. There has never been such a presidential election in our political history.

Currently, the race between the two leading candidates is neck and neck. A comprehensive analysis of recent opinion polls shows that most are engaged in a close contest within the margin of error. This is also a phenomenon not seen in past presidential elections. So, what are the key variables that could decide the outcome of the election going forward?

First is the unification of the opposition.

Whether Yoon and Ahn Cheol-soo, the presidential candidate of the People Party, can unify is a key variable that could change the race. If unification is achieved smoothly, Yoon’s chances of leading the flow by attracting moderate voters will increase significantly. It will also consolidate the support base of Lee’s camp, who will feel a sense of crisis. Whether unification happens before February 28, the date when ballot printing begins, is the first point to watch.

Second is unexpected risks.

Slip-ups by candidates can sometimes lead to huge shifts in the race. Representative examples include former lawmaker Chung Dong-young’s ‘elderly disparagement remarks’ during the 2004 general election and the Liberty Korea Party’s ‘Ibu Mangcheon (If divorced, go to Bucheon; if bankrupt, go to Incheon)’ remarks during the June 2018 local elections. This is why the three TV debates are highly anticipated.

Third is voter turnout.

The COVID-19 situation, with the Omicron variant running rampant, could be a variable. Currently, Lee is strong among the 40s and 50s age groups, while Yoon is strong among the 60s and 70s age groups. Ultimately, the outcome will be decided by how effectively each candidate can mobilize their supporters to the polls.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.