Kim Eo-jun Questions 'Opinion Poll': "Consistency Lacking... First Time in 20 Years for Such a Case"

"Consistency Falls Short Even Within the Same Survey"

Broadcaster Kim Eo-jun. Photo by TBS Radio, screenshot from 'Kim Eo-jun's News Factory'.

[Asia Economy Reporter Heo Midam] Broadcaster Kim Eo-jun raised doubts about the consistency of presidential candidate opinion polls on the 7th, stating, "I've been watching for nearly 20 years, but this is the first time I've seen such a case."

On that day, Kim said on his TBS radio show 'Kim Eo-jun's News Factory,' "These days, opinion polls are quite exceptional. It's natural for figures to differ among polling agencies, but even within a single poll, the consistency is lacking."

He referred to a particular poll result, explaining, "Support for Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, increased compared to the previous poll, and he slightly led Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party candidate, within the margin of error. However, the likelihood of winning rose for Yoon instead. Meanwhile, the public opinion for regime change actually declined."

He continued, "It's not the individual figures that matter, but the internal consistency of a single poll must be accurate. Should we interpret this as public sentiment fluctuating that much, or should we see it as a limitation in current polling methods capturing public sentiment? I've been observing opinion polls for nearly 20 years, but this is the first time I've seen this."

Kim added, "The same agency conducted surveys just a day or two apart, yet there were cases with significant changes. It's a strange occurrence."

He also mentioned the 2016 U.S. presidential election, saying, "On the day, all polling agencies gave Hillary a 99% chance of winning. But Trump won. Since then, there have been major changes in polling methods in the U.S."

Kim predicted, "In South Korea, during the 2008 local elections, results were very inaccurate, so polling agencies adjusted their measurement methods themselves. Depending on the results of this presidential election, that could happen again."

Meanwhile, the poll Kim referred to was conducted by JoongAng Ilbo, commissioned to Embrain Public, surveying 1,005 men and women nationwide aged 18 and over from the 4th to 5th. In this poll, Lee's support rate was 38.1%, Yoon's was 36.8%, but the likelihood of winning was 45.2% for Yoon and 36.5% for Lee.

The response to "It is better for the opposition candidate to win for the current regime to be replaced" was 53.8%, down from 56.5% in the previous survey (January 15-16). This survey was conducted via telephone interviews combining landline random digit dialing (RDD, 15.4%) and mobile (virtual numbers, 84.6%). The response rate was 16.6%, and the sampling error was ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.