North Korea's Military Parade Signs Spotted... Likely to Be Held on the 16th of Next Month

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] It has been confirmed that North Korea is preparing a military parade. With North Korea hinting at ending the moratorium on nuclear tests and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test launches, there is keen interest in whether it will unveil strategic weapons aimed at the United States during the parade.

A government official said, "There are signs that North Korea is currently preparing for a military parade," adding, "We are closely monitoring when and how the parade will be conducted."

It is uncertain whether North Korea will hold a nighttime parade this time as well. North Korea has previously held three consecutive nighttime parades: the 75th anniversary of the Workers' Party founding parade (October 2020), the 8th Party Congress (January 2021), and the 75th anniversary of the Party founding parade (September 2021).

The military is currently assessing how the parade will be conducted since it is still in the initial preparation stage. Given that the 80th anniversary of Kim Jong-il's birthday (February 16) is followed by the 110th anniversary of Kim Il-sung's birthday (April 15), there is a possibility the parade could be held around this time. This could mean a show-of-force provocation instead of a direct military provocation.

However, both inside and outside the military expect North Korea to continue military provocations for the time being. Following Kim Jong-il's birthday, the presidential election and South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises are scheduled for March. Kim Il-sung's birthday also follows. During this period, there is a high possibility of additional military demonstrations related to the 'Five Major Tasks' mentioned at last January's Party Congress. The Five Major Tasks North Korea outlined include hypersonic missiles, super-large nuclear warheads, improving the 15,000 km strike accuracy rate, developing underwater and ground solid-fuel ICBMs, and possessing nuclear submarines and underwater-launched nuclear strategic weapons.

North Korea has also accelerated the frequency of missile test launches this year. After the first missile test launch on the 5th, the second missile was launched just six days later, followed by launches on the 14th and 17th at three-day intervals, showing increasing speed. There is even speculation about possible launches on the 20th or 21st.

One interpretation of North Korea's 'rapid-fire' launches is that it has embarked on a large-scale performance enhancement of its existing missile systems. Because of this, it is expected that the next launches could be large-caliber multiple rocket launchers or cruise missiles.

Some predict that by launching strategic weapons other than hypersonic missiles, North Korea could be crossing the U.S. red line.

Professor Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies said, "By February 16, or at the latest by April 15, North Korea is likely to conduct strategic weapon launches, including nuclear missile tests, to assert its presence," adding, "This signals a return to a highly tense, imminent crisis situation."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.