[Initial Report] Two Missiles That Shook the New Year

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] North Korea launched two missiles from the beginning of the new year. These are hypersonic missiles, which North Korea evaluates as having the most important strategic significance among the ‘5 Core Tasks’ of its defense development plan. Our military initially downplayed the first missile launch as merely a ‘simple ballistic missile level,’ but North Korea responded with a second missile reaching a top speed of Mach 10. The fact that Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party, observed the launch is also seen as a demonstration of the North Korean military authorities’ confidence and the missile’s completeness.

The South Korean military authorities, who had insisted that North Korea’s missile capabilities were exaggerated, can no longer avoid responsibility for their misjudgment. While North Korea has been focusing on strengthening its defense power by successfully conducting test launches of missiles with improved performance over a few days, we have been underestimating North Korea’s missile capabilities. Although our economic power ranks within the top 10 globally and is incomparable to North Korea’s, our missile development capabilities should never be underestimated.

Hypersonic missiles, which glide horizontally and vertically, are harder to detect and intercept than conventional ballistic missiles that follow a parabolic trajectory. They are so-called ‘game changers’ that can alter the course of war. Only three countries?the United States, China, and Russia?have successfully launched such missiles. Experts express concern that if hypersonic missiles are deployed in actual combat, they could neutralize the South Korea-U.S. missile defense network.

Having completed the hypersonic missile among the ‘5 Core Tasks,’ North Korea is highly likely to test-launch or reveal other weapons corresponding to the remaining core tasks, such as multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs). The timing is expected to be around the 110th anniversary of Kim Il-sung’s birthday (April 15) and the 80th anniversary of Kim Jong-un’s birthday (February 16). North Korea aims to emphasize that it is continuing the ‘legacy of the predecessors’ by showcasing military achievements and to appease the public sentiment of its citizens suffering from economic difficulties caused by COVID-19.

As North Korea’s missile development accelerates, concerns about the expansion of the arms race in Northeast Asia are growing. On the 6th, the United States and Japan agreed to conduct joint research to counter hypersonic missiles during their foreign and defense ministers’ (2+2) meeting. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is accelerating rearmament while advocating for the possession of ‘enemy base strike capabilities.’ South Korea is also evaluated to have provoked North Korea through last year’s submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) flight test and the Nuri rocket launch.

If the arms race intensifies, the already stagnant South-North-U.S. dialogue will inevitably fall deeper into a quagmire. Although President Moon Jae-in said at the groundbreaking ceremony for the inter-Korean railway on the 5th that “we must not let go of the thread of dialogue,” North Korea shows little sign of coming to the negotiating table despite South Korea’s efforts, including pushing for a declaration to formally end the war. The United States is also responding with sanctions on those involved in North Korea’s ballistic missile launches, maintaining a ‘strong against strong’ stance.

Nevertheless, inter-Korean dialogue must continue. The foundation for removing the shadow of the arms race hanging over Northeast Asia, easing tensions on the Korean Peninsula, and discussing peace and prosperity again can only come from open-hearted dialogue. With about 100 days left in its term, the Moon administration must strive to create momentum for dialogue until the end, but the next president who succeeds the government must also prioritize dialogue with North Korea as a top agenda.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.