Presidential Election: "Three-Way Race or Two Strong, One Middle"... "An's Support for Lee After Yoon Depends on Taking Polls"

Presidential Election Landscape: This Week as a Turning Point
Various Scenarios from Three-Way to Two-Strong-One-Medium, One-Strong-Two-Medium
Lee Jae-myung Shows Governance Capability
Yoon Seok-youl Recovers Lost Support
Ahn Cheol-soo Aims for Two-Strong, Not Troika Anymore

[Asia Economy Reporters Naju-seok and Oh Ju-yeon] With the presidential election landscape having flowed into a two-horse race between Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-youl, the entry of Ahn Cheol-soo, the presidential candidate of the People’s Party, has made the possibility of a ‘three-horse race’ a major focus in the current political arena. Experts believe that whether Candidate Ahn can achieve additional increases in approval ratings within this week will be a turning point.

Ahn Cheol-soo, the presidential candidate of the People’s Party, is attending the Central Election Countermeasures Committee meeting held at the National Assembly on the 10th and delivering an opening remark. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

According to a poll conducted by Realmeter on behalf of OhmyNews (from the 2nd to the 7th, surveying 3,042 people nationwide aged 18 and over, with a sampling error of ±1.8 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea received 40.1%, Yoon Seok-youl of the People Power Party 34.1%, and Candidate Ahn 11.1%. Candidate Ahn’s rating surged by 4.5 percentage points compared to the previous survey.

In the KSOI’s own poll released the day before (conducted on the 7th and 8th, surveying 1,000 people nationwide aged 18 and over, with a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), Lee received 37.6%, Yoon 35.2%, and Ahn 15.1%. Although the figures vary between surveys, it is clear that Candidate Ahn has secured double-digit support.

Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, held a New Year's press conference on the 4th at the Kia Motors factory in Gwangmyeong, Gyeonggi Province, under the theme "Vision for Korea's Great Transformation and National Leap Forward." Photo by the National Assembly Press Photographers Group

However, experts emphasize that the current election dynamics are very fluid. Kim Bong-shin, CEO of Metavoice and a polling expert, said, “A three-horse race is a situation where the three candidates compete in the low 30% to 20% range,” adding, “The key is whether Candidate Ahn’s support surpasses 20%.” Ahn’s rise in approval ratings is explained by a decline in Yoon’s ratings, but for Ahn to realize a ‘three-horse system,’ he must absorb some support not only from Yoon but also from Lee. Conversely, if Lee stands out and surpasses 40% support, a one-strong, two-middle structure could emerge. On the other hand, if Yoon recovers support from the 20s and 30s generation after reorganizing his campaign headquarters and cooperating with party leader Lee Jun-seok, a two-strong, one-middle structure could solidify.

The Democratic Party is hopeful that as the election day approaches, the mood will shift from a judgment on the current administration to an election focused on a ‘future vision.’ Han Min-su, deputy head of the Democratic Party’s public relations team, said, “Going forward, Candidate Lee will present a future vision through ‘Leeconomics’ (Lee Jae-myung + Economics) to demonstrate that he is the right person to take charge of the government for the next five years.” The opposition parties, including the People Power Party and the People’s Party, are prioritizing securing advantageous positions in negotiations while keeping candidate unification in mind. Even if unification cannot be avoided later, the current analysis is that it is time to strengthen their power first.

On the 10th, Yoon Seok-yeol, the presidential candidate of the People Power Party, visited the site at Gyeongwoo Precision in Namdong-gu, Incheon, to explore measures for improving management and working conditions of small and medium-sized enterprises. He toured the worksite with CEO Park Jin-soo. Photo by the National Assembly Press Photographers Group

Kim Cheol-geun, head of political affairs at the People Power Party leader’s office, said, “Since last weekend, the possibility of a return to a two-strong race (Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-youl) has increased,” adding, “The support base for Candidate Ahn cannot be considered solid. Yoon has high party support and strong public opinion for regime change, and with several internal party issues being resolved, he is likely to stand out.”

For detailed information on the aforementioned polls, please refer to the website of the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.