Hong Kong Observes Up to 250,000 Omicron Infections Within 6 Months
[Asia Economy Reporter Dongwoo Lee] Local health experts in Hong Kong have analyzed that the number of COVID-19 infections could surge up to 250,000 within six months following the introduction of the Omicron variant.
According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP) on the 9th, a joint research team composed of universities including the Chinese University of Hong Kong and City University of Hong Kong predicted that if Hong Kong does not strengthen social distancing measures, up to 250,000 people could be infected with the Omicron variant within six months.
The research team explained that they reached this conclusion by inputting data from community-targeted online surveys conducted since January 2020, Apple's mobile trend data, Hong Kong's COVID-19 vaccination rates, and vaccine effectiveness into a mathematical model.
The team pointed out that from December 23 last year to January 5 this year, an average Hong Kong resident contacted 34 people per day, indicating that social mobility has returned to pre-COVID-19 levels.
Assistant Professor Sean Yuan of the Chinese University of Hong Kong told SCMP, "Hong Kong will face a critical moment in the coming weeks," adding, "If contact tracing is strengthened, there is still an opportunity to prevent community transmission."
The research team estimated that if the government reduces social contacts by 40% through measures such as school closures or remote work, the number of infections during the same period could decrease to around 12,500.
In Hong Kong, with a population of approximately 7.2 million, the cumulative number of COVID-19 infections reached 12,902 from January 2020 to the day before, among which 223 cases of Omicron variant infections have been confirmed, including both imported and community transmission cases.
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At the end of last month, the first community transmission cases of the Omicron variant were confirmed in Hong Kong. This marks the first confirmation of community transmission of COVID-19 in Hong Kong in over two months.
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