Rapid Transmission, Medical Crisis Worsening, Unknown Toxicity... Why Omicron Is Frightening

Growing Omicron Warning Signals

234 Cumulative Cases in Korea
Spread Rate 3 Times Faster Than Delta
Experts: "Dominant Variant in Korea Within One or Two Months"

20,000 to 30,000 Confirmed Cases Possible
Significant Burden on Current Medical System

Medical staff are caring for a patient in the intensive care unit of Pakae Hospital, a COVID-19 dedicated hospital in Pyeongtaek-si, Gyeonggi-do. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Chun-hee] As the number of new COVID-19 cases rises again to the 7,000 range and the spread continues daily, concerns are growing domestically as the Omicron variant rapidly spreads worldwide. Although most infected individuals exhibit mild or no symptoms, leading to assessments that the risk is not high, there are worries that a rapid surge in cases could deal a fatal blow to the already strained medical response capacity.

"Expected to Become the Dominant Strain Domestically Within One or Two Months"

The spread of Omicron is accelerating sharply. While countries like the United States have already established it as the dominant strain, infections are rapidly increasing domestically as well. On the 20th (local time), the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced that "Omicron has become the dominant strain in the U.S." Between December 12 and 18, the proportion of Omicron infections among new cases in the U.S. surged to 73.2%.

The United Kingdom is also experiencing dominance of Omicron. On the 21st (local time), the UK Health Security Agency (HSA) reported an additional 15,363 Omicron variant infections, bringing the total to 60,508. This accounts for 17% of the 90,629 new cases reported that day.

Domestically, as of midnight on the 22nd, four imported cases and three local infections were newly confirmed, raising the cumulative number of Omicron infections to 234. This spread is noticeably faster than the Delta variant, which previously had the highest transmissibility. Delta surpassed 200 cases about two months after its first domestic detection on April 22, reaching that number on June 21, whereas Omicron exceeded it in just 19 days after its initial detection.

There is also analysis suggesting that Omicron was spreading globally even before it was first reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) on November 24.

Professor Baek Soon-young, Emeritus Professor at the Catholic University Medical School, stated, "Considering the trends in the U.S. and the UK, it is likely that Omicron had already spread within communities. Given this possibility, it is expected to become the dominant strain domestically within one or two months." Omicron variants were also detected in samples collected before the official report in countries such as the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany.

Currently, PCR test kits capable of specifically detecting Omicron are not yet distributed domestically, raising the possibility that cases are not being properly identified. The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency plans to complete efficacy evaluations of Omicron diagnostic kits developed by domestic companies by the end of this month and distribute them to frontline testing sites.

Cannot Be Underestimated Even If Mild

The rapid transmissibility of Omicron is largely influenced by the different primary sites of viral replication within the body. Omicron mainly replicates in the upper respiratory tract, from the nose to the pharynx, which facilitates rapid spread, whereas its replication rate in the lower respiratory tract?from the larynx to the bronchi, where severity tends to increase?is lower than that of Delta.

Professor Chun Eun-mi of the Respiratory Medicine Department at Ewha Mokdong Hospital said, "It seems to spread easily as it coexists with common cold viruses, but the rate of severe cases does not appear to be high." She added, "Looking at cases in South Africa, symptoms tend to be somewhat milder." South African Health Minister Joe Phaahla stated, "Before Omicron emerged, the hospitalization rate was 19%, but it dropped to 1.7% afterward, with most hospitalized patients showing mild symptoms." Domestically, most Omicron cases have been asymptomatic or mild, and even when symptoms like pneumonia appeared, they remained mild.

On the 21st, the COVID-19 screening clinic at Nowon-gu Public Health Center in Seoul was crowded with citizens seeking tests. The Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters announced that as of midnight, the number of new confirmed cases increased by 5,202, bringing the total to 575,615. There are 1,022 critically ill patients, the second highest number ever recorded. Photo by Moohnam Moon munonam@

Toxicity Not Yet Determined

However, experts say it is too early to assess Omicron's actual toxicity, and given its rapid transmissibility, it will place a significant burden on the already strained medical field. Professor Baek expressed concern, saying, "The key issue is how severe the cases will be among the elderly and those with underlying conditions. Considering its transmissibility, the number of confirmed cases could exceed the current 7,000 level and reach 20,000 to 30,000, which could lead to frequent deaths occurring without hospitalization."

Professor Chun also noted, "Even if only 5% of these cases become severe, many severe patients will emerge given the rapid spread. Considering the hidden Omicron infections in the community, home treatment should be reduced, and as many patients as possible should be admitted to residential treatment centers. Additionally, self-test kits should be distributed to households so individuals can screen themselves."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.