Lee 37%·Yoon 44%... The Regime Change Theory Being Chased

Realmeter Multi-Candidate Survey
Support Rate Gap Narrows by 2.7%p in Two Weeks

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] The gap in approval ratings between Yoon Seok-yeol, the People Power Party's presidential candidate, and Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party's presidential candidate, has slightly narrowed. However, in a situation where public opinion favors a regime change, the opposition party's candidate Yoon maintains a trend of leading beyond the margin of error.

Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, and Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party presidential candidate, are attending a media event held at the Four Seasons Hotel in Jongno-gu, Seoul on the 24th, exchanging greetings. Photo by National Assembly Press Photographers Group

On the 24th, Realmeter conducted and announced a multi-candidate approval rating survey for five presidential candidates commissioned by YTN (survey conducted nationwide from the 22nd to 23rd among 1,011 adults aged 18 and over, with a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level). Candidate Yoon's approval rating was 44.1%, while candidate Lee's was 37.0%. Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party received 4.0%, Sim Sang-jung of the Justice Party 3.8%, and Kim Dong-yeon 1.1%. In the two-candidate race, Yoon recorded 48.9%, ahead of Lee’s 39.3%.

The approval rating gap between candidates Yoon and Lee has narrowed compared to the previous survey. On the 10th, in the same institution’s multi-candidate survey, the gap decreased from 9.8 percentage points to 7.1 percentage points, and in the two-candidate race, it decreased from 13.0 percentage points to 9.6 percentage points. When asked about the expected outcome of next year’s presidential election, 54.3% chose ‘regime change by the opposition.’ The percentage who answered ‘extension of the ruling party’s administration’ was only 38.4%, and 7.3% responded ‘don’t know.’

Meanwhile, in the Win-G Korea Consulting opinion poll commissioned by this paper, with results released the previous day (survey conducted nationwide from the 20th to 21st among 1,025 adults aged 18 and over, with a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), 50.7% responded ‘regime change to the People Power Party,’ and 34.3% responded ‘re-election of the Democratic Party.’ In this survey, candidate Yoon led candidate Lee in both the five-candidate multi-race approval rating (42.7% vs. 34.4%) and the likelihood of winning (48.5% vs. 37.7%).

For detailed opinion poll information, please refer to the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.