'A Neck-and-Neck Race Within a Week'... Yoon Seok-yeol Holds a Narrow 0.5% Lead Over Lee Jae-myung

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, has significantly narrowed the gap in approval ratings with Yoon Seok-yeol, the presidential candidate of the People Power Party. The previously dominant trend favoring Yoon has shifted to an extremely close race within a week.

According to a survey conducted by the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI) commissioned by TBS from the 19th to the 20th, targeting 1,007 voters nationwide aged 18 and over, Yoon’s approval rating was 40.0%, while Lee’s was 39.5%. Compared to the same survey conducted last week, Yoon’s approval rating dropped by 5.6 percentage points, whereas Lee’s rose by 7.1 percentage points. The gap between the two candidates narrowed from 13.2 percentage points to 0.5 percentage points.

Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, and Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party presidential candidate, are attending an event held on the 22nd at the Grand Walkerhill Seoul in Gwangjin-gu, Seoul, and exchanging greetings. Photo by the National Assembly Press Photographers Group

The rise in Lee’s approval appears to be largely due to the consolidation of his support base. In particular, among voters in their 40s, where Lee is strong, his approval rating increased by 17.3 percentage points to a robust 62.2%. Additionally, Lee’s approval rating rose across all age groups, including a 8.3 percentage point increase among voters in their 30s compared to last week. On the other hand, Yoon’s approval rating among voters in their 20s, a group he had focused on since his nomination, increased by 4.2 percentage points to 31.3%, but his approval ratings generally declined in other age groups.

Looking at the regions, Yoon’s approval rating rose by 2.2 percentage points to 56.3% only in Daegu and Gyeongbuk, while it declined in all other regions. Conversely, Lee’s approval rating increased by 15.3 percentage points to 44.1% in the Chungcheong region, including Daejeon, Sejong, and Chungcheong, and rose by 7.5 percentage points to 33.2% in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam. Coincidentally, these two areas were visited by Lee during the weekends of the 19th to 21st (Chungcheong region) and the 12th to 14th (Busan, Ulsan, Gyeongnam) as part of his Maetaverse (Daily Livelihood Bus) campaign. While Yoon was preoccupied with forming his election committee, Lee’s strategy of strengthening regional schedules seems to have been effective.

Another notable point is the weakening of public opinion favoring regime change and the growing voice for regime continuation. Regarding the nature of the next presidential election, 46.8% of respondents supported regime change, while 42.1% said the current regime should be continued. Although the opinion favoring regime change still held a 4.7 percentage point lead, the voice for regime change weakened compared to last week. In last week’s survey, 53.6% supported regime change, and 37.0% supported regime continuation. This survey was conducted using a wireless automated response system (ARS) with virtual phone numbers (safe numbers) on mobile phones, and the sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, please refer to the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission and the KSOI website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.