[Click eStock] Pre-Sales That Led Construction Stocks: "Next Year, We Need to Lower Expectations for the Pre-Sales Market"

The housing pre-sale market is expected to finish the year on a positive note
Since last August, 8 provinces have seen overall competition rates below 1:1

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Gong Byung-sun] If the planned supply volume for this year is achieved, the housing supply market is expected to end the year on a positive note. However, considering the unsold units mainly occurring in the 8 provinces, there are concerns that expectations for next year's housing supply market should be lowered.

According to NH Investment & Securities on the 19th, the supply volume so far this year is 319,000 units, with 158,000 units in the Seoul metropolitan area, 42,000 units in the five major metropolitan cities, and 119,000 units in the 8 provinces. While the Seoul metropolitan area and the five major metropolitan cities, which faced issues related to the price ceiling system, underperformed compared to the past, the 8 provinces recorded the highest levels since 2015 and 2016.

The remaining planned supply volume for the rest of the year is 107,000 units. If the targets are met with 40,000 units in the Seoul metropolitan area, 24,000 units in the five major metropolitan cities, and 34,000 units in the 8 provinces, the total supply volume for this year will be 416,000 units. Although this is lower than the 450,000 units expected in the first half of the year, it is still the highest level since 2015 and 2016.

However, supply in the 8 provinces has started to decline. The overall competition rate in the Seoul metropolitan area and the five major metropolitan cities remains solid except for Daegu City. But in the 8 provinces, many areas have had a competition rate below 1:1 since August. In particular, Gyeongju Sambur Renaissance The Terrace in Gyeongbuk has 453 unsold units out of 534 total units, Gyeongju Wellaum The Terrace has 171 unsold units out of 230 total units, and Shingyeongju The First Messian has 734 unsold units out of 954 total units. Among the four complexes supplied in September and October, three have failed to sell out.

Accordingly, NH Investment & Securities analyzes that construction and building materials stocks should be traded with consideration of next year's housing supply market. Researcher Lee Min-jae of NH Investment & Securities explained, "If the planned supply volume is achieved in the remaining two months, this year's housing supply market will be favorable," but added, "However, the unsold units mainly in the 8 provinces will be a reason to lower expectations for next year's housing supply market."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.