Critical Care Bed Shortage, Two Weeks After Rapid Increase in Confirmed Cases Is the Turning Point

Metropolitan Area ICU Beds
Effectively 'Exhausted' with Only 25 Beds Left at 80% Capacity
High Possibility of Surpassing Next Week

Surge in Patients and Time Lag
Booster Shot Interval Likely to Be Shortened

Citizens are waiting to get tested for COVID-19 at the screening clinic of Songpa-gu Public Health Center in Songpa-gu, Seoul. [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Chun-hee] As the spread of COVID-19 continues to center around the Seoul metropolitan area, the intensive care unit (ICU) bed occupancy rate in the metropolitan area has exceeded 70%, the threshold for triggering the 'emergency plan.' Although health authorities have repeatedly stated that there is still some capacity available, concerns are rising that the real crisis has not yet arrived, considering the actual spread of COVID-19.

On the morning of the 15th, Son Young-rae, head of the Social Strategy Division at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters, appeared on TBS's "Kim Eo-jun's News Factory" and said, "Looking nationwide, there is about 40% capacity left, so from a national perspective, there is still some room in bed occupancy rates," emphasizing that it is not yet at the level to declare an emergency situation.

However, as the spread is reaching dangerous levels mainly in the metropolitan area, it is premature to be reassured by the overall stable situation. With the ICU bed occupancy rate rising, only 25 beds remain before reaching 80%, which is effectively the 'exhaustion' level of ICU beds. This threshold could be exceeded as early as next week. The proportion of critically ill patients is also concentrated in the metropolitan area, with 384 out of 471 patients (Seoul 202, Gyeonggi 34, Incheon 148) accounting for 81.5%.

In response, health authorities have issued administrative orders to secure semi-critical care beds in large general hospitals in the metropolitan area, designated additional infectious disease-dedicated nursing hospitals to increase the absolute number of beds, and activated an 'emergency medical response' plan to operate ICU beds exclusively for patients requiring critical care. They are focusing all efforts on strengthening medical response capacity. Additionally, while patients surging in the metropolitan area are being transferred to nearby regions such as Chungnam, Chungbuk, and Daejeon to cope, this is also criticized as a temporary measure. Since emergency situations may arise during ICU patient transfers due to deterioration of patient conditions, it is essential to resolve the issue within the region as much as possible.

The problem is that the surge in critically ill patients occurs with a certain time lag after the increase in confirmed cases. Looking at the early stage of the 4th wave, the weekly average of confirmed cases doubled from 612.1 on July 1 to 1,255.6 on July 14, two weeks later. However, the number of critically ill patients, which was 144 per day, doubled only two weeks after that, on July 30 (299 patients). This means there is about a two-week lag between the surge in confirmed cases and the increase in critically ill patients.

Considering this, the current number of critically ill patients, approaching 500, is likely to soon exceed 500 and surge further. Especially in August, when the spread of the 4th wave entered a lull, the weekly average of confirmed cases increased by only about 20% without a sharp rise, but the number of critically ill patients increased by 34%, reaching 434 on the 25th.

To prevent this, health authorities are continuing to administer additional vaccinations (booster shots) to the elderly, whose vaccine effectiveness has waned over time, and are expected to announce this week a plan to shorten the interval for booster shots to five months.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.