"Even If Global Greenhouse Gas Reduction Plans Are Followed, Earth's Temperature Will Rise by 2.4 Degrees"

Climate Action Tracker Warming Outlook Report... "International Community Lacks Concrete Plans" Criticism
To Prevent Climate Disaster, Temperature Rise Must Be Limited to 1.5
COP26 Chair: "Without Action from Each Country, 'Carbon Zero' Is Just Lip Service"

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Suhwan] Although countries around the world have pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, a pessimistic forecast has emerged that the expected rise in global temperatures will be 2.4 degrees Celsius, significantly exceeding the long-term target of 1.5 degrees. In response, Alok Sharma, the president of the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26), described the path to solving global warming as "an uphill battle" and called for active action from the international community.

The international environmental organization Climate Action Tracker (CAT) released a report on the 9th (local time) calculating climate commitments made before and after COP26, containing these findings.

The organization stated in the report that when aggregating each country's 2030 greenhouse gas reduction targets, the global temperature by 2100 is expected to rise by 2.4 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels.

According to the organization, if these targets are met, greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 will be twice the amount that would limit the global temperature rise to below 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The 1.5-degree mark is considered the threshold to prevent the most dangerous impacts of climate change.

To achieve the goal of limiting warming to below 1.5 degrees, the UN analysis states that carbon neutrality must be reached by 2050, and greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 45% compared to 2010 levels by 2030.

The organization said that under the most pessimistic scenario where current policies remain unchanged, the temperature rise by 2100 would be 2.7 degrees Celsius.

It explicitly warned that long-term carbon neutrality goals set by countries for after 2050 should not be assumed to be achieved, as there are no short-term plans on how to accomplish them.

However, the organization noted that under the most optimistic scenario, the temperature rise would be 1.8 degrees Celsius, aligning with recent projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, which participates in CAT, pointed out, "If world leaders do not present plans to achieve net zero (net carbon emissions '0'), their targets will be nothing more than lip service."

In particular, it is anticipated that the agreement results related to carbon emission permits discussed at this COP26 will serve as a benchmark for future international climate response efforts.

Previous two climate change convention meetings also failed to reach an agreement on establishing a carbon emissions trading market.

Carbon emission permits literally refer to the right to emit carbon. Companies granted emission permits can only emit greenhouse gases within the allowed limits.

Companies can trade carbon emission permits with other companies in the market and generate separate profits.

While COP26 is expected to establish a framework for a global carbon emissions trading market, some developing countries are reportedly still opposing the creation of such a market.

Gilles Dufrasne, policy researcher at the NGO Carbon Market Watch, said, "There is a very high possibility that a carbon emissions permit agreement will be reached at this COP26," but added, "We do not expect significant progress."

Meanwhile, Alok Sharma, COP26 president, said that although there has been some progress at this conference, it is insufficient, stating, "We still have a mountain to climb."

He urged, "The world must immediately implement climate response policies," and emphasized, "Declarations announced here must be genuinely upheld, and policies and investments must promptly follow."

An EU climate policy official also warned on the same day, "To be honest, we have not even come close to the targets."

Tuvalu, a South Pacific island nation facing the threat of submersion due to sea-level rise caused by global warming, also revealed that it is considering extraordinary measures such as relocating its territory.

Simon Kofe, Tuvalu's Minister of Foreign Affairs, said, "We are considering even the worst-case scenarios, such as our entire territory being submerged."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.