D-4 to Final Primary, Eyes on Lee Jae-myung's Vote Share in the Seoul Metropolitan Area

Lee Nak-yeon Leads by Over 200,000 Votes
42% Vote Share Means Direct Advance to Presidential Election
Final Primary Results Announced on the 10th

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] The final result of the Democratic Party's presidential primary to be announced on the 10th is drawing attention not only to whether a runoff between Lee Jae-myung and Lee Nak-yeon will take place, but also to how high the vote share of the leading candidate, Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, will be in the Seoul metropolitan area.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to the Democratic Party on the 6th, if Governor Lee secures around 42% of the vote in the third round of delegate voting, which will be held over five days starting that day, as well as in the Gyeonggi vote on the 9th and the Seoul vote on the 10th, he can advance directly to the general election without a runoff. So far, in the primary voting involving a total of 1.55 million people (voter turnout 65.96%), Governor Lee has received 540,000 votes (54.90%), while former Representative Lee has received 340,000 votes (34.33%), putting Governor Lee approximately 200,000 votes (20.57 percentage points) ahead.

The remaining voters in the Seoul metropolitan area, including Gyeonggi and Seoul, and the third round of delegate voters total 620,000 people, and applying the existing turnout rate, about 410,000 are expected to participate. Including those who have already participated, the total number of delegates will be about 1.42 million, and Governor Lee needs to obtain more than 710,000 votes to advance directly to the general election, meaning he only needs to add about 170,000 votes going forward.

Even if Governor Lee is confirmed as the Democratic Party's final presidential candidate on the 10th, it is important to check his vote share in the Seoul metropolitan area to assess how competitive he will be against opposition candidates in the general election. This is because the voting sentiment in Gyeonggi and Seoul can provide insight into public opinion for next year's presidential election. There is also a possibility that recent controversies surrounding Daejang-dong have caused changes in support trends. Professor Park Sang-byeong of Inha University said, "Both ruling and opposition parties are employing framing strategies related to the Daejang-dong issue," adding, "In this context, it is interesting to see how much support Governor Lee will receive in his stronghold, Gyeonggi."

Governor Lee, who has previously secured over 50% of the vote except in Gwangju and Jeonnam, could see support in his home base of Gyeonggi reach the high 50% range or even the low 60% range if current trends continue, but the recent Daejang-dong issue may make this difficult. Professor Park analyzed, "If the support rate exceeds 60%, it will strengthen Governor Lee's momentum, but conservative forces in the Gyeonggi region are also formidable." He added, "He will be able to emphasize that he is a candidate who will definitely not lose in the general election only if he shows the highest vote share among all regional primaries held so far."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.