Concerns Over Simultaneous COVID-19 and Flu Outbreak This Winter... 'Twin-demic' Alert

Last Year's Flu Season Missing... Lack of Data to Predict Flu Mutations and Epidemic Strains

On the morning of the 28th, a citizen is receiving a vaccine at the COVID-19 vaccination center set up at the Mapo-gu Community Sports Center in Seoul. [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Seohyun] Concerns are rising about a 'twindemic' this winter, where COVID-19 and influenza spread simultaneously. In particular, with the 'With Corona' policy leading to increased face-to-face contact, it is expected that this year's flu season will be more severe than in previous years.

The British weekly magazine The Economist warned of a global influenza pandemic this winter in its latest issue. Last winter, flu did not spread due to mask-wearing and social distancing, but ironically, this could make this year's flu season more severe.

Experts have diagnosed that there is a lack of data to predict flu mutations and circulating strains. The flu vaccine is updated annually due to the spread of mutations. Since vaccine development and production take at least six months, the World Health Organization mobilizes a global network to collect related data and informs experts every February and September. However, this year, vaccines must be made by predicting circulating strains despite insufficient data.

From September last year to January this year, the global positive rate for flu tests was less than 0.2%, a very low figure compared to 17% from 2017 to 2020. Moreover, flu vaccines tend to have lower preventive effects than COVID-19 vaccines. It is reported to be about 70% effective in healthy adults and around 50% in the elderly.

The UK's Academy of Medical Sciences (AMS) warned, "Due to the absence of the flu season in 2020?2021, people likely did not develop natural immunity to the flu virus," adding, "In such an environment, a flu outbreak could become problematic." According to AMS research, if Britons return to pre-pandemic lifestyles, a winter flu season 2.2 times more deadly than usual is expected.

Meanwhile, American pharmaceutical companies Pfizer and Moderna are reportedly conducting clinical trials of mRNA (messenger ribonucleic acid)-based flu vaccines.

According to AFP, Pfizer has begun developing an mRNA vaccine to improve upon existing flu vaccines, which currently have an effectiveness level of 40?60%. After clinical trials and approval by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Pfizer plans to compare safety and immunity with existing flu vaccines.

Moderna also started clinical trials for an mRNA flu vaccine in July, and the UK-based company Seqirus announced plans to begin mRNA flu vaccine clinical trials by the end of next year.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.