'North Korean Provocations' as the Biggest Variable in the Declaration of the End of the War

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] Following President Moon Jae-in's proposal to pursue a declaration of the end of the war in his UN General Assembly speech and the United States' positive response, North Korea's provocations have emerged as a short-term variable to gauge whether this discussion will materialize.

North Korea is scheduled to hold major domestic events on the 28th of this month and the 10th of next month, raising the possibility of some form of provocative action around these dates.

On the 22nd (U.S. time), the day after President Moon's mention of the declaration of the end of the war, the U.S. Department of Defense stated in a press briefing, "We continue to seek engagement with North Korea to resolve various issues and are open to discussions about the possibility of a declaration of the end of the war."

What deserves attention is that the official U.S. position came from the Department of Defense rather than the White House or the State Department. This has led to criticism that the effectiveness cannot be guaranteed.

Earlier in March, U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken stated regarding the declaration of the end of the war, "An assessment of security for South Korea, Japan, and the United States itself must precede." This implies that if North Korea continues provocations, discussions on the declaration of the end of the war cannot proceed.

On the same day in the afternoon, a trilateral meeting of foreign ministers from South Korea, the U.S., and Japan was held in New York, where discussions on the declaration of the end of the war also took place.

After the trilateral meeting with Secretary Blinken and Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi Toshimitsu, South Korean Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong told reporters that when asked whether there were discussions about President Moon's proposal for the declaration of the end of the war and North Korea's nuclear and missile activities presented in the previous day's UN General Assembly speech, he replied, "Of course (there were)."

It is unclear whether the discussions on the declaration of the end of the war took place in the trilateral talks or in the bilateral meeting with Secretary Blinken, but it indicates that opinions were exchanged with the United States.

Meanwhile, although the possibility remains open that North Korea or China may respond positively to President Moon's proposal, North Korea's movements related to upcoming major schedules are expected to act as variables.

If North Korea conducts missile provocations around the Supreme People's Assembly on the 28th or the 76th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea on the 10th of next month, it could be interpreted as rejecting President Moon's proposal.

In particular, if Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party, attends the Supreme People's Assembly in person and reveals defense strategies, tensions on the Korean Peninsula will rise again. Regarding the 76th anniversary of the party's founding, since it is not a so-called milestone year (years divisible by 5 or 10), the likelihood of provocations is low.

However, if weapons such as submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) or new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) are mentioned, it could be read as a negative signal toward President Moon's proposal.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.