[AKYUNG Poll] Jeong Se-gyun Resigns... Where Will the 6% Vote Go?

Democratic Party Primary Narrowed to 5-Way Race
Former Leader Lee Nak-yeon from Honam
High Possibility of Gaining Ripple Effects

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeon Jinyoung] With former Prime Minister Jeong Se-gyun voluntarily withdrawing from the six-person Democratic Party primary race, the contest has now been narrowed down to five candidates. On the 14th, Asia Economy commissioned Win-Gi Korea Consulting to conduct a public opinion poll from the 11th to 12th among 1,022 voters nationwide aged 18 and older (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response). When asked, "Who do you think is the most suitable candidate for the next Democratic Party presidential nominee?" former Prime Minister Jeong received 6.0% support, ranking fourth. The direction of the 6% voter base that supported former Prime Minister Jeong has emerged as a variable in the upcoming primary race.

Overall, it is widely expected that former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon will gain a spillover benefit. Both former Prime Minister Jeong and former leader Lee served as prime ministers under the Moon Jae-in administration and are from the Honam region. Unlike Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, who shows a reformist and aggressive image, both have maintained a relatively moderate image. This suggests that their support bases may overlap significantly.

Additionally, early in the primary, the two built an ‘anti-Lee Jae-myung front’ by advocating for schedule delays and other measures to oppose Governor Lee. Since former Prime Minister Jeong withdrew ahead of the Democratic Party’s Honam primary, it seems likely that votes will consolidate around former leader Lee, who is also from Honam. Especially for Lee’s camp, which saw a rebound in support during the recent Super Week, securing former Prime Minister Jeong’s supporters is an urgent task.

In his withdrawal press conference on the 13th, former Prime Minister Jeong stated that he does not have a particular candidate in mind. Regarding the possibility of further unification, he drew a line by saying, "I am not assuming any specific role." In this context, former leader Lee’s camp has not issued a special statement, but there is an expectation within the camp of a spillover benefit. Seemingly aware of this, Governor Lee’s side is also reaching out to former Prime Minister Jeong’s supporters. Right after Jeong’s withdrawal press conference, Governor Lee said, "He is a political senior whom I respect and whom I actually served under," adding, "I hope he will continue to play a leadership role in stabilizing the party and leading the democratic government’s path."

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-Gi Korea Consulting from the 11th to 12th among voters aged 18 and older nationwide, with 1,022 respondents and an overall response rate of 7.4%. The survey method was wireless ARS with 100% mobile phone virtual numbers, and the sample was extracted using weighted values (cell weighting) by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-Gi Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.