Finals Without Elimination VS Last-Minute Comeback Strategy... Lee Jae-myung and Lee Nak-yeon Bet Their Lives on Honam

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Koo Chae-eun] The Honam primary scheduled for the 25th and 26th is expected to be the final battleground that will decide the Democratic Party's presidential candidate. Governor Lee is betting on a "direct advance to the main election without a runoff," while former Representative Lee Nak-yeon is putting everything on the line in Honam, the Democratic Party's stronghold, for a "last-minute comeback."

According to the Democratic Party on the 13th, there are seven remaining primary schedules. On the 25th, Gwangju and Jeonnam; on the 26th, Jeonbuk; on October 1st, Jeju; on the 2nd, Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam; on the 3rd, Incheon; on the 9th, Gyeonggi; and on the 10th, Seoul. Since Governor Lee has already won a majority in the previous four primaries (cumulative vote share of 51.41%), it is widely expected that the Honam primary will be the decisive battleground. The Honam primary involves the largest number of delegates and party members with voting rights, so for Governor Lee, it is expected to have a bandwagon effect, while for former Representative Lee, it is seen as a stepping stone for a comeback. A strong performance in the Honam primary can solidify the candidate’s position as the Democratic nominee and serve as a driving force to unite the ruling party forces under the goal of regime continuation.

Former Representative Lee Nak-yeon, who hails from Yeonggwang, Jeonnam, appears to be "all in" on Honam. After declaring his resignation from the city council on the 8th at Gwangju City Council, he stayed in Honam for three consecutive days to rally public sentiment. Governor Lee also began his Honam campaign in earnest on the same day, starting with the announcement of pledges for Gwangju and Jeonnam in the afternoon. Meanwhile, according to a Gwangju-Jeonnam public opinion poll released by Research View on the 9th (with a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points), former Representative Lee’s support rate was 30.4%, somewhat trailing Governor Lee’s 40.7%. However, when limited to those intending to participate in the Democratic Party primary, Governor Lee’s support was 45.2%, and former Representative Lee’s was 40.9%, showing a gap within the margin of error (4.3 percentage points).

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.