'Weekend of Destiny'... Lee Jae-myung Expands Power as 'Pro-Moon' vs Lee Nak-yeon Makes Last Stand to Woo Honam

On the 12th, 640,000 Citizens and General Party Members Vote in the '1st Super Week'

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] The upcoming weekend marks a turning point in the Democratic Party's presidential primary. The so-called '1st Super Week' will reveal the preferences of about one-third of the total electorate. The focus is on the opinions of the 640,000 national and general party members.

If Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, who won a majority in the Chungcheong regional primary dominated by party members last weekend, receives similar support from the national and general party members, he will solidify his frontrunner status without a runoff vote. Former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon has taken a bold step by resigning his parliamentary seat, and the key question is how much support and organizational strength he can muster in the Honam region.

According to the Democratic Party on the 10th, the electorate for Daegu and Gyeongbuk on the 11th numbers 16,170, and for Gangwon on the 12th, 16,293. The voting results of the 641,922 national and general party members, who were recruited in the first round, will also be announced on the 12th.

Including the already completed Chungcheong region, the cumulative results of about 750,000 votes will be released. The current total electorate is about 1.85 million, and after the third round of applications closes on the 14th, it is expected to reach around 2.2 million.

If a candidate gains an overwhelming majority of more than half of the votes from about one-third of the electorate, it will be difficult to overturn this lead in the subsequent primaries. For former leader Lee, the only option is to narrow the gap and push the race to a runoff vote if no candidate secures a majority, then rally the support of eliminated candidates to attempt a comeback.

The current landscape favors Governor Lee. In the Chungcheong region, he secured 54.7%, defeating former leader Lee, who garnered 28.1%, by a 'double score.' This result was similar to the support rate Lee received from Democratic Party supporters in various polls.

According to a Realmeter poll commissioned by OhmyNews conducted on the 6th and 7th (nationwide 2,019 respondents, 90% wireless, 10% wired, 95% confidence level, margin of error ±2.2 percentage points, response rate 5.5%), Governor Lee received 53.9% support among Democratic Party supporters.

It is significant that former leader Lee announced his intention to resign from the National Assembly on the 8th in Gwangju. National and general party members are categorized only by application timing, not by region. However, it is estimated that a large proportion of them reside in or originate from Honam, the Democratic Party's regional base. Looking at the number of delegates and party members, Gwangju, Jeonnam, and Jeonbuk total about 200,000, more than Gyeonggi Province or Seoul. Born in Yeonggwang, Jeonnam, and politically launched by the late President Kim Dae-jung, as well as a former governor of Jeonnam, former leader Lee has sent an SOS to escape his crisis.

According to a poll conducted by Research View commissioned by Mudeung Ilbo on the 6th and 7th in Gwangju and Jeonnam (1,000 respondents, 100% wireless ARS, 95% confidence level, margin of error ±3.1 percentage points, response rate 8.6%), Governor Lee scored 43.1% and former leader Lee 36.3% in suitability as Democratic Party candidates. In Jeonnam alone, the race was close. It remains to be seen how much influence former leader Lee's relatively strong party organization will exert.

Meanwhile, Governor Lee has been accelerating his power expansion by recruiting prominent pro-Moon Jae-in (Chinmun) lawmaker Jeon Jae-su from Busan and Representative Wi Seong-gon, head of the largest Democratic Party faction 'The Better Future,' into his campaign. This is expected to somewhat dilute the hostility of the hardline pro-Moon faction and expand his frontrunner momentum.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.