[Presidential Election D-6 Months] 'Breakthrough' Lee · 'Unification Key' Lee vs 'Anti-Moon' Yoon · 'Expandability' Hong

Reading the Presidential Election D-6 Months Scenario
<2> SWOT Analysis of the Big 4 Presidential Candidates

Lee Jae-myung, Strengths in Drive and Execution
Family-Related Controversies Persist
Lee Nak-yeon, Evaluated as a Stable Figure
Also Analyzed as Different from Reform and Progressivism

Yoon Seok-youl, Strong Support from 60+ Age Group and Yeongnam Region
Lack of Political Experience and Erratic Moves as Weaknesses
Hong Joon-pyo, Recent Surge in Approval Ratings
Criticism for Excessive Right-Wing Tendencies

Editor's NoteThe election day to choose the 20th President of the Republic of Korea is just six months away. Where is the public sentiment aligned? Rather than focusing on minor exchanges between candidates, examining the major variables that could sway the overall situation can be an effective way to gauge Korea's future. Asia Economy has conducted an in-depth analysis of online public opinion trends based on these key points. We have also comprehensively organized the policy directions pursued by each candidate and the profiles of their campaign teams. Through a three-part series, we aim to read the current landscape and anticipate what lies ahead in six months.

As two leading candidates have emerged from both the ruling and opposition parties, this report analyzes their strengths and weaknesses, crises and opportunities. Experts predict that next year's presidential election will be decided not only by debate performances but also by how each candidate highlights their strengths and weaknesses amid gate-level political events.

◆‘Crisis-Breakthrough Type’ Lee Jae-myung vs ‘Stability-Seeking Type’ Lee Nak-yeon

Just a year ago, former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon enjoyed support nearing 40%, while Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, who had not shone among many potential candidates within the ruling party, has now completely reversed their positions with six months left until the presidential election. After the first Democratic Party primary results were announced in the Chungcheong region, where Governor Lee defeated former leader Lee by a double-digit margin, the internal party dynamics shifted significantly. Experts interpret this as Democratic Party supporters focusing more on ‘crisis-breakthrough’ leadership rather than ‘stability-seeking’ leadership.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Governor Lee’s greatest strength is his drive and execution ability. Notable examples include the valley maintenance project during his tenure as mayor of Seongnam and the distribution of disaster relief funds to Gyeonggi residents. His presidential campaign slogan is "Lee Jae-myung Gets Things Done." The expectations placed on him as a leader to navigate the COVID-19 era were also confirmed by votes during the recent primary process. However, family issues remain a weakness. Controversies arose from his unrefined expressions during this period. Within the party, anti-Lee sentiment held him back for some time. Yet, after his overwhelming victory in the Chungcheong region, he has even garnered support from the pro-Moon Jae-in faction, solidifying his ‘dominant trend’ status, which is an opportunity factor.

Governor Lee emphasized closeness with former Minister of SMEs and Startups Park Young-sun, who ran as the Seoul mayoral candidate in the April 7 by-election, and on the 8th, he recruited Assemblyman Jeon Jae-soo, a key figure in the pro-Moon faction, into his campaign. Professor Park Sang-byeong of Inha University analyzed the situation, saying, "The focus is on strong leadership capable of directly competing with Yoon Seok-youl, the leading opposition candidate."

On the other hand, former leader Lee Nak-yeon is regarded as a stable figure with extensive administrative experience, including five terms as a member of the National Assembly, governor of Jeollanam-do, and prime minister. While this can be an advantage, it also poses a weakness. He has built trust with a ‘strict, solemn, and serious’ image but lacks the boldness that the era demands in terms of reformist and progressive leadership. His recent negative campaign tactics during the ‘Myung-Nak showdown’ differed from his usual demeanor and caused rejection among supporters, which is a setback. In this regard, some analyses suggest that the only strategy left for former leader Lee in the remaining primaries is unification. Election and political consultant Kim Hyo-tae questioned, "Has there ever been a policy election despite pushing new welfare policies?" and added, "Ultimately, for former leader Lee, the key will be whether he can achieve unification with former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun and former Minister of Justice Choo Mi-ae."

◆‘Anti-Moon Jae-in Faction’ Yoon Seok-youl vs ‘Hong Cola’ Hong Jun-pyo

Former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl has emerged as the leading figure of the opposition, gaining strong support from the core supporters of the People Power Party, especially those aged 60 and above and in the Yeongnam region. Since these regions and age groups have high voter turnout, he is expected to hold a favorable position in the general election. However, as seen from various controversies since his full-fledged political activities began, his lack of political experience and erratic behavior are considered weaknesses. While he has the advantage of being able to establish himself as a Chungcheong region candidate based on his local ties, allegations involving him and his family could become significant variables in the upcoming presidential race. Eom Kyung-young, director of the Era Spirit Research Institute, predicted, "Allegations such as the report manipulation involving Assemblyman Kim Woong and the stock manipulation case involving Yoon’s wife Kim Gun-hee could cause considerable upheaval in the future."

Yoon Seok-yeol, the People Power Party's presidential primary candidate, and Hong Joon-pyo attended the People Power Party's "20th Presidential Candidate 1st Primary Candidates' Top 3 Policy Pledges Presentation" held at the ASSA Building broadcast studio in Magok-dong, Gangseo-gu, Seoul on the 7th, exchanging greetings. Photo by National Assembly Press Photographers Group

Recently, People Power Party Assemblyman Hong Jun-pyo has shown a rapid rise in approval ratings, especially with strong support among those in their 20s and 30s, raising expectations for his expansion potential. However, criticisms that he is a foul-mouthed politician or excessively right-wing limit his appeal. His characteristic eloquence and straightforward remarks can be refreshing to some but off-putting to others. His 26 years of political experience can also be leveraged as a differentiator from Yoon in terms of governance capability. Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon said, "During the last presidential election, the term ‘Hong Jun-pyo risk’ was circulated due to concerns about verbal slips, but recently he seems to be exercising restraint and moderating his expressions." However, he added, "If debates intensify, this tendency could pose a risk of declining support for him."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.