Kim Geun-sik "Hong Joon-pyo's Rising Trend? Just a 'Flash'... Fundamentally an Opposition Party's Losing Card"

"Rising Support for Hong Is Equivalent to Kim Jae-won Voting for Ruling Party's Chu Mi-ae"

Hong Joon-pyo, member of the People Power Party./Photo by Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Kang Juhee] Former People Power Party Vision Strategy Office Chief Kim Geunsik gave a negative analysis on the rise in approval ratings of presidential candidate Hong Junpyo, saying, "MuyaHong (unconditionally supporting the opposition candidate Hong Junpyo) is a temporary optical illusion."

On the 5th, Kim wrote on his Facebook, "MuyaHong is the opposition party version of 'Eodaemyeong (Anyway, the presidential candidate is Lee Jae-myung)' and 'Hongnattaeng (Thank you if Hong Junpyo runs)."

He analyzed, "The original hardline conservative supporters who were with former Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman Choi Jae-hyung have temporarily shifted to Hong Junpyo. They are some of the traditional conservative base centered in Yeongnam who still do not trust former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl or open their hearts to him."

He also saw 'reverse voting' as influencing Hong's rise in approval ratings. Kim said, "The Honam region and Democratic Party supporters, hoping for a Democratic victory, are giving strength to Hong as an opposition party's losing card. It is the same as Kim Jaewon (People Power Party Supreme Council member) saying he would vote for Democratic Party's Choo Mi-ae."

He added, "Some voters in their 20s and 30s who support Representative Lee Junseok are temporarily supporting Hong, who has openly sided with Lee in the recent conflict between Yoon Seok-youl and Lee Junseok," and claimed, "Due to these three factors, Hong is experiencing a brief surge, but essentially, the MuyaHong phenomenon is our opposition party's losing card."

Kim predicted, "Hong Junpyo fundamentally cannot expand his vote base or attract centrists, and with his blunt remarks and old-fashioned image, his defeat in the general election is as clear as day. Even the hardline conservative base with Taegeukgi tendencies will eventually judge that they cannot win with Hong and will make a 'strategic choice' for a candidate with a higher chance of winning." He also said, "The 20s and 30s voter base supporting Representative Lee will eventually break free from the misconception of equating Lee with Hong Junpyo and withdraw their support for Hong."

In recent polls, Hong has shown an upward trend, surpassing former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl, who had consistently held first place in suitability as the People Power Party presidential candidate. According to an R&Search survey commissioned by Gyeonggi Newspaper conducted on the 3rd and 4th among 1,017 people nationwide aged 18 and over, Hong recorded 32.5%, narrowly ahead of Yoon's 29.1%, ranking first within the margin of error.

However, some analyses suggest that Hong's rise reflects the 'reverse voting' tendency where Democratic Party supporters back the candidate they believe will be advantageous to their party's candidate in the general election, as Kim claimed.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.